Happy Valley · 2019-11-27
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-11-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOP SCORE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with COMPASSION STAR second and THE ONE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TOP SCORE B/TT 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 2 | 2.1 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | COMPASSION STAR M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 8.8 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | THE ONE B L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 9 | 33.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | IRON BOY B/XB U Rispoli · D J Whyte | U Rispoli | D J Whyte | 5 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR H/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 3 | 50.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE XB1/H2 S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 11 | 7.8 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | SUPER LUCKY H/XB A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 10 | 34.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | FOCUS A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | KUNG FU TEA XB R Bayliss · D J Hall | R Bayliss | D J Hall | 6 | 23.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | CAMFORD MAGIC T H So · W Y So | T H So | W Y So | 1 | 239.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | GALAXY EMPEROR H1/TT1 H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 12 | 48.0 | 20-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TOP SCORE | 34.9% | 2.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | IRON BOY | 11.5% | 8.72 | 4 |
| 3 | 9 | SUPREME PLUS | 9.6% | 10.42 | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 9.2% | 10.83 | 6 |
| 5 | 12 | FOCUS | 9.2% | 10.93 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | SUPER LUCKY | 6.5% | 15.40 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | KUNG FU TEA | 5.2% | 19.05 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | COMPASSION STAR | 5.2% | 19.06 | 2 |
| 9 | 4 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 4.0% | 24.73 | 12 |
| 10 | 7 | THE ONE | 2.5% | 40.68 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | GRAND HARBOUR | 1.6% | 64.01 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | CAMFORD MAGIC | 0.6% | 161.68 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 21.5
PLACE
1 11.5
7 79
11 23
QUINELLA
1,11 107
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 137.5
1,11 41.5
7,11 302
TIERCE
1,11,7 3,179
TRIO
1,7,11 878
FIRST 4
1,5,7,11 1,854
QUARTET
1,11,7,5 25,802
1ST DOUBLE
6/1 126
6/11 150
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 15.5