Happy Valley · 2019-12-04
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. I'M THE CONQUIST, ridden by A Sanna and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with BLOOMING SPIRIT second and KWAI CHUNG ELITE third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | I'M THE CONQUIST B 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 5 | 3.4 | NOSE |
| 2 | 1 | BLOOMING SPIRIT CP-/B2/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 5.3 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE H2 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | FIRE AND GOLD B U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 12 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | NASHASHUK P/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | GREAT SON B/TT S De Sousa · P O'Sullivan | S De Sousa | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 8.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B-/XB-/CP1 J McDonald · D J Hall | J McDonald | D J Hall | 4 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | FARM BUMPER TT1 K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 4.2 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | ART OF RAW H-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 6 | 96.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | MY DEAR TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 2 | 33.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SUNNY MAJOR V-/H1/B2 M Chadwick · D E Ferraris | M Chadwick | D E Ferraris | 8 | 70.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 1 | 31.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BLOOMING SPIRIT | 28.2% | 3.55 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | FARM BUMPER | 13.1% | 7.62 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 12.0% | 8.35 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 9.6% | 10.37 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 8.3% | 12.04 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | GREAT SON | 6.4% | 15.57 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | NASHASHUK | 6.1% | 16.43 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | FIRE AND GOLD | 5.3% | 18.95 | 4 |
| 9 | 5 | ART OF RAW | 4.3% | 23.17 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | MY DEAR | 2.8% | 36.24 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | SUNNY MAJOR | 2.0% | 50.85 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | FOX CHEUNGER | 1.9% | 51.84 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 34.5
PLACE
1 18
3 32
6 15.5
QUINELLA
1,6 151
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 90.5
1,6 52
3,6 101.5
TIERCE
6,1,3 1,738
TRIO
1,3,6 269
FIRST 4
1,3,6,10 1,074
QUARTET
6,1,3,10 22,324
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —