Happy Valley · 2019-12-04
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLYING GENIUS TT 0.57.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · A S Cruz | R Moore | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B Y Kawada · P F Yiu | Y Kawada | P F Yiu | 4 | 6.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | G UNIT K Teetan · J Moore | K Teetan | J Moore | 5 | 3.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT C Y Ho · R Gibson | C Y Ho | R Gibson | 7 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 10 | 6.5 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB1 O Murphy · D J Hall | O Murphy | D J Hall | 11 | 127.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO XB J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 12 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | EVERBRAVE P-C Boudot · K L Man | P-C Boudot | K L Man | 6 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | EPTIWINS XB/CP1 Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 9 | 8.8 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | DR PROACTIVE C Keane · K H Ting | C Keane | K H Ting | 1 | 70.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | NUNCHUKS TT1 L Dettori · C Fownes | L Dettori | C Fownes | 2 | 38.0 | 6 |
| — | 0 | STRATHALLAN J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 8 | 10.0 | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FLYING GENIUS, ridden by R Moore and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with HAPPY GOOD GUYS second and G UNIT third. The 3.6 favourite G UNIT finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | G UNIT | 17.0% | 5.89 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 12.2% | 8.22 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | EVERBRAVE | 12.0% | 8.31 | 8 |
| 4 | 0 | FLYING GENIUS | 11.7% | 8.56 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | EPTIWINS | 11.5% | 8.67 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | DR PROACTIVE | 9.6% | 10.44 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 8.6% | 11.62 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 6.8% | 14.66 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 5.2% | 19.11 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | NUNCHUKS | 4.3% | 23.32 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 1.1% | 91.69 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 50.5
PLACE
2 17
7 20.5
11 22
QUINELLA
7,11 176
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 63.5
2,11 50
7,11 66.5
TIERCE
7,11,2 1,745
TRIO
2,7,11 223
FIRST 4
2,7,11,12 844
QUARTET
7,11,2,12 23,362
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 26
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/7 552.5
1/11 103.5