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Happy Valley · 2019-12-04

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DREAM WARRIORS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with MURRAY'S PARTNERS second and THUNDER STOMP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite RIGHTEOUS MATE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT 1.40.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 4.0 SH
2 10 MURRAY'S PARTNERS B1 J Moreira · C H Yip 11 12.0 SH
3 2 THUNDER STOMP Led early B- Z Purton · Y S Tsui 12 16.0 1/2
4 6 WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly XB Y Kawada · D J Whyte 9 7.0 3/4
5 4 STARSHIP Closed strongly B L Dettori · P O'Sullivan 3 17.0 1
6 8 CHARITY WINGS B P-C Boudot · C S Shum 4 11.0 1-1/4
7 9 RIGHTEOUS MATE Closed strongly R Moore · A T Millard 8 3.7 1-1/2
8 1 LET'S TAKE IT EASY Closed strongly CP/H O Murphy · L Ho 10 26.0 2
9 12 MASTER ROMAN C Y Ho · W Y So 5 94.0 2-1/4
10 3 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT C Keane · F C Lor 7 13.0 3-1/4
11 5 SMART ROCKET CP-/B2 J McDonald · J Moore 2 9.8 5-1/4
12 11 LIGHTNING STEED TT S De Sousa · C Fownes 6 30.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DREAM WARRIORS2. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+0.1L3. THUNDER STOMP+0.5L4. WINNING ENDEAVOUR+0.75L5. STARSHIP+1L6. CHARITY WINGS+1.25L7. RIGHTEOUS MATE+1.5L8. LET'S TAKE IT EASY+2L9. MASTER ROMAN+2.25L10. FLASH FAMOUS+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MURRAY'S PARTNERS (23.1%) finished 2nd — the winner DREAM WARRIORS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 23.1% 4.33 2
2 7 DREAM WARRIORS 21.7% 4.61 1
3 3 FLASH FAMOUS 13.7% 7.28 10
4 9 RIGHTEOUS MATE 8.9% 11.21 7
5 4 STARSHIP 7.4% 13.58 5
6 8 CHARITY WINGS 5.9% 16.93 6
7 11 LIGHTNING STEED 5.6% 17.85 12
8 6 WINNING ENDEAVOUR 5.5% 18.15 4
9 5 SMART ROCKET 2.9% 34.01 11
10 2 THUNDER STOMP 2.3% 43.69 3
11 1 LET'S TAKE IT EASY 2.0% 49.02 8
12 12 MASTER ROMAN 0.9% 110.11 9
MURRAY'S PARTNERSDREAM WARRIORS — wonFLASH FAMOUSRIGHTEOUS MATESTARSHIPCHARITY WINGSLIGHTNING STEEDWINNING ENDEAVOURSMART ROCKETTHUNDER STOMPLET'S TAKE IT EASYMASTER ROMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 40

PLACE

2 63

7 18.5

10 35

QUINELLA

7,10 258.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 172.5

2,10 274

7,10 95.5

TIERCE

7,10,2 8,475

TRIO

2,7,10 1,689

FIRST 4

2,6,7,10 3,448

QUARTET

7,10,2,6 73,584

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,11/2,7,10 88,959

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 19.5

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

7/7 231

7/10 162.5