Happy Valley · 2019-12-04
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with BLASTOISE second and PRETTY BAUHINIA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite BLASTOISE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT 1.40.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 3.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | BLASTOISE Closed strongly R Moore · D E Ferraris | R Moore | D E Ferraris | 4 | 2.5 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B2 A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 3 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | POLYMER LUCK B G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 12 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 11 | 23.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | SAM'S LOVE J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 10 | 27.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | RAZOR QUEST B-/TT U Rispoli · C W Chang | U Rispoli | C W Chang | 5 | 51.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 1 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | PRESIDENT STAR Led early B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 6 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | ROYAL RACER P-/H/PC1 K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 8 | 7.4 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | AEROFLASH B1 A Sanna · P O'Sullivan | A Sanna | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 129.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BLASTOISE | 28.5% | 3.51 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 22.0% | 4.54 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | ROYAL RACER | 12.2% | 8.23 | 11 |
| 4 | 8 | SHINING ON | 8.8% | 11.37 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | SAM'S LOVE | 8.7% | 11.47 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | IMPECCABLE FELLOW | 4.8% | 20.92 | 9 |
| 7 | 12 | POLYMER LUCK | 3.4% | 29.73 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE | 2.7% | 37.67 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 2.6% | 39.01 | 3 |
| 10 | 10 | AEROFLASH | 2.5% | 40.07 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | PRESIDENT STAR | 2.2% | 45.92 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | RAZOR QUEST | 1.8% | 56.76 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 32
PLACE
2 12.5
3 14.5
4 33
QUINELLA
2,3 49.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 21.5
2,4 60.5
3,4 72.5
TIERCE
3,2,4 643
TRIO
2,3,4 139
FIRST 4
2,3,4,12 559
QUARTET
3,2,4,12 6,888
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
7/2 21.5
7/3 108.5