Happy Valley · 2019-12-04
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING FEELING, ridden by R Moore and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1/2, with MASTER ALBERT second and VICTORY POWER third. The 4.7 favourite SHOUSON finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WINNING FEELING B 1.10.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Moore · D E Ferraris | R Moore | D E Ferraris | 2 | 8.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 5 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | VICTORY POWER B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 9 | 7.8 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | SHOUSON B J McDonald · J Moore | J McDonald | J Moore | 7 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | DOLLAR REWARD P-/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 6 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | THE SHOW B K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 11 | 101.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | GOLDEN GLORY B/TT U Rispoli · K H Ting | U Rispoli | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | VIVA COUNCIL V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | AFTER ME TT H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 4 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | EL JEFE B1/TT G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 3 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | DRAGON BOLT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 8 | 48.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | KHAKI O Murphy · A T Millard | O Murphy | A T Millard | 10 | 17.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DOLLAR REWARD | 16.3% | 6.14 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | VICTORY POWER | 12.3% | 8.16 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | MASTER ALBERT | 11.7% | 8.55 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SHOUSON | 10.0% | 9.99 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | AFTER ME | 9.2% | 10.86 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | DRAGON BOLT | 8.7% | 11.49 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | WINNING FEELING | 8.6% | 11.65 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | EL JEFE | 8.4% | 11.91 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | VIVA COUNCIL | 5.3% | 19.04 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | KHAKI | 4.3% | 23.42 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | GOLDEN GLORY | 3.9% | 25.97 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | THE SHOW | 1.5% | 66.35 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 87
PLACE
1 25.5
3 27.5
10 18
QUINELLA
1,10 244
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 110
1,10 80.5
3,10 77.5
TIERCE
1,10,3 4,665
TRIO
1,3,10 630
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 532
QUARTET
1,10,3,4 14,745
2ND DOUBLE
7/1 1,136
7/10 96
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 22
A3 —