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Happy Valley · 2019-12-04

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-04 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DOCTORS DELIGHT, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with GOLD VELVET second and KWAICHUNG BROTHERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite LIVERBIRD STAR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.40.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 DOCTORS DELIGHT Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 2 10.0 N
2 5 GOLD VELVET Closed strongly B A Badel · A T Millard 1 8.3 N
3 11 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS Closed strongly B Z Purton · R Gibson 6 12.0 3/4
4 1 CALLING THE SHOTS Led early B/TT O Murphy · A S Cruz 12 13.0 1
5 8 LIVERBIRD STAR B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 4 4.0 1-3/4
6 9 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So 7 8.4 2-3/4
7 2 CHAPARRAL STAR TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 12.0 3
8 6 HAPPY HOUR E/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 5 5.8 3-1/4
9 4 GODSPEED Closed strongly B J McDonald · D J Hall 8 5.6 4-1/4
10 10 LITTLE ISLAND Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · K L Man 11 57.0 4-1/2
11 3 DIVINE POWER B H T Mo · P F Yiu 9 76.0 5-3/4
12 12 KEEP GOING H-/PC H W Lai · Y S Tsui 10 82.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DOCTORS DELIGHT2. GOLD VELVET+0.05L3. KWAICHUNG BROTHERS+0.75L4. CALLING THE SHOTS+1L5. LIVERBIRD STAR+1.75L6. WONDERFUL TIGER+2.75L7. CHAPARRAL STAR+3L8. HAPPY HOUR+3.25L9. GODSPEED+4.25L10. LITTLE ISLAND+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LIVERBIRD STAR (23.3%) finished 5th — the winner DOCTORS DELIGHT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LIVERBIRD STAR 23.3% 4.28 5
2 9 WONDERFUL TIGER 13.1% 7.62 6
3 7 DOCTORS DELIGHT 12.6% 7.93 1
4 11 KWAICHUNG BROTHERS 11.8% 8.45 3
5 5 GOLD VELVET 9.9% 10.12 2
6 6 HAPPY HOUR 9.8% 10.17 8
7 1 CALLING THE SHOTS 8.1% 12.32 4
8 4 GODSPEED 5.4% 18.66 9
9 10 LITTLE ISLAND 1.9% 51.44 10
10 2 CHAPARRAL STAR 1.8% 56.77 7
11 12 KEEP GOING 1.2% 82.88 12
12 3 DIVINE POWER 1.0% 101.06 11
LIVERBIRD STARWONDERFUL TIGERDOCTORS DELIGHT — wonKWAICHUNG BROTHERSGOLD VELVETHAPPY HOURCALLING THE SHOTSGODSPEEDLITTLE ISLANDCHAPARRAL STARKEEP GOINGDIVINE POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 102.5

PLACE

5 26

7 37.5

11 35

QUINELLA

5,7 397

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 120.5

5,11 178.5

7,11 180

TIERCE

7,5,11 10,815

TRIO

5,7,11 1,594

FIRST 4

1,5,7,11 3,509

QUARTET

7,5,11,1 85,850

1ST DOUBLE

6/5 56.5

6/7 626

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 21.5