Happy Valley · 2020-01-08
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHOUSON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with GOLDEN GLORY second and MASTER ALBERT third. The 3.1 favourite LORIZ finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SHOUSON B 1.09.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 12 | 5.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | GOLDEN GLORY B/TT S De Sousa · K H Ting | S De Sousa | K H Ting | 9 | 25.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 20.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | PLIKCLONE H J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 1 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | HERO TIME B-/H-/XB-/TT- M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 3 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | LORIZ B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 6 | 3.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 7 | 4.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | I'M THE CONQUIST B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | SHIMMER AND SHINE V- C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 4 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | PLAY TO WIN H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 5 | 9.4 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 167.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | LET'S GO PARTY TT1 M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 2 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HAPPY ALUMNI | 19.6% | 5.11 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | SHOUSON | 16.9% | 5.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | LORIZ | 16.8% | 5.97 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | PLIKCLONE | 10.5% | 9.49 | 4 |
| 5 | 9 | PLAY TO WIN | 8.7% | 11.50 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT | 5.9% | 16.88 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | HERO TIME | 5.2% | 19.23 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | GOLDEN GLORY | 4.8% | 20.78 | 2 |
| 9 | 12 | I'M THE CONQUIST | 4.1% | 24.17 | 8 |
| 10 | 3 | SHIMMER AND SHINE | 3.7% | 26.74 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | LET'S GO PARTY | 3.0% | 33.08 | 12 |
| 12 | 8 | SUCCESS ALLSTARS | 0.8% | 129.90 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 53.5
PLACE
6 20
10 62.5
11 55.5
QUINELLA
6,10 574.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 183
6,11 146
10,11 341.5
TIERCE
6,10,11 9,885
TRIO
6,10,11 2,588
FIRST 4
6,7,10,11 5,950
QUARTET
6,10,11,7 93,007
1ST DOUBLE
7/6 672
7/10 284.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 31.5