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Happy Valley · 2020-01-08

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly XB 1.40.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 6 3.0 1/2
2 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE Closed strongly B S De Sousa · K L Man 12 10.0 1/2
3 0 DOR DOR Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size 7 10.0 1-1/4
4 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly B J Moreira · C H Yip 3 3.4 2-1/2
5 0 FLAME LILY Closed strongly TT G van Niekerk · F C Lor 2 5.9 4-1/2
6 0 ACCLAIMED LIGHT Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 21.0 4-3/4
7 0 KANBEKI MOLLY SR C Y Ho · P F Yiu 4 24.0 4-3/4
8 0 CURLING LUXURY Led early K H Chan · Y S Tsui 10 20.0 5-1/4
9 0 GALA NIGHT CP- N Callan · J Moore 8 30.0 6-1/4
10 0 BEAUTY ANGEL TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 1 54.0 7-1/2
11 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 9 27.0 9-3/4
12 0 GOOD RUNNERS WAY B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 5 111.0 10-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WINNING ENDEAVOUR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with EVERYONE'S ELITE second and DOR DOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING ENDEAVOUR—2. EVERYONE'S ELITE+0.5L3. DOR DOR+1.25L4. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+2.5L5. FLAME LILY+4.5L6. ACCLAIMED LIGHT+4.75L7. KANBEKI MOLLY+4.75L8. CURLING LUXURY+5.25L9. GALA NIGHT+6.25L10. BEAUTY ANGEL+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MURRAY'S PARTNERS (35.8%) finished 4th — the winner WINNING ENDEAVOUR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 35.8% 2.80 4
2 0 WINNING ENDEAVOUR 16.6% 6.02 1
3 0 FLAME LILY 12.8% 7.82 5
4 0 EVERYONE'S ELITE 7.2% 13.82 2
5 0 DOR DOR 7.0% 14.23 3
6 0 KANBEKI MOLLY 6.6% 15.11 7
7 0 GALA NIGHT 3.5% 28.22 9
8 0 ACCLAIMED LIGHT 3.1% 32.00 6
9 0 CURLING LUXURY 2.9% 34.48 8
10 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 2.3% 42.61 11
11 0 GOOD RUNNERS WAY 1.5% 67.86 12
12 0 BEAUTY ANGEL 0.6% 178.65 10
MURRAY'S PARTNERSWINNING ENDEAVOUR — wonFLAME LILYEVERYONE'S ELITEDOR DORKANBEKI MOLLYGALA NIGHTACCLAIMED LIGHTCURLING LUXURYFAITHFUL TRINITYGOOD RUNNERS WAYBEAUTY ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 30.5

PLACE

3 14.5

5 29.5

12 29.5

QUINELLA

3,12 124.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 56

3,12 50.5

5,12 109.5

TIERCE

3,12,5 1,244

TRIO

3,5,12 347

FIRST 4

3,5,8,12 266

QUARTET

3,12,5,8 5,338

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,5/3,5,12 40,434

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

5/3 125

5/12 86.5