Happy Valley · 2020-01-08
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BABY, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with VICTORY POWER second and BEAUTY SPARK third. The 2.0 favourite AURORA PEGASUS finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BABY B 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K H Ting | S De Sousa | K H Ting | 11 | 9.1 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | VICTORY POWER B/XB A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.6 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 3 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | AURORA PEGASUS TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 1 | 2.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 8 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | MR PICASSO B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 2 | 61.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | BLOTTING PAPER B1/H2 C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 5 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | FLYING BONUS C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 12 | 22.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | FAIRY TWINS TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 9 | 139.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | SPECIAL STARS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | VERY RICH MAN H/TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 41.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | SHANGHAI MASTER H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 10 | 131.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AURORA PEGASUS | 33.2% | 3.01 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | SPECIAL STARS | 18.8% | 5.31 | 10 |
| 3 | 5 | BABY | 11.0% | 9.09 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | VICTORY POWER | 10.4% | 9.62 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | VERY RICH MAN | 5.9% | 16.91 | 11 |
| 6 | 3 | BLOTTING PAPER | 4.8% | 20.83 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 4.8% | 20.83 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | FLYING BONUS | 3.3% | 30.30 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY SPARK | 2.9% | 34.01 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | MR PICASSO | 1.9% | 53.55 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | SHANGHAI MASTER | 1.9% | 53.72 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | FAIRY TWINS | 1.1% | 94.13 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 91
PLACE
4 27.5
5 21.5
10 15
QUINELLA
5,10 144
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 110.5
4,10 64
5,10 49.5
TIERCE
5,10,4 2,484
TRIO
4,5,10 404
FIRST 4
2,4,5,10 147
QUARTET
5,10,4,2 6,061
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 36.5
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,4/4,5,10 13,249
8TH DOUBLE
1/5 773
1/10 73
SIX UP
1,5/3,12/6,8/4,5,6/1,2/5,10 2,229
5/3/8/4/1/5 217,284
4 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
4/1/5 2,652
4/1/10 254