Happy Valley · 2020-01-08
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WHAT A LEGEND, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-3/4, with CONFUCIUS DAY second and CASA DE FORCA third. The 2.2 favourite NOBLE MAN finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WHAT A LEGEND B 1.10.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 3 | 3.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 9 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA CP M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | THE ONE B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 6 | 8.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | CEREFINO B-/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 12 | 67.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SHINING ON H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 8 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 4 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | NOBLE MAN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 2.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | DRAGON BOLT B L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 7 | 273.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 5 | 310.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE CP N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 1 | 13.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | E GENERATION XB1 A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 11 | 56.0 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 0 | LUCKY QUALITY Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | NOBLE MAN | 38.7% | 2.59 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | WHAT A LEGEND | 21.6% | 4.64 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | CASA DE FORCA | 8.2% | 12.20 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | THE ONE | 7.0% | 14.33 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 5.1% | 19.72 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | E GENERATION | 4.9% | 20.50 | 12 |
| 7 | 3 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 4.3% | 23.31 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | SHINING ON | 4.1% | 24.39 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 2.7% | 37.20 | 7 |
| 10 | 6 | CEREFINO | 1.9% | 53.77 | 5 |
| 11 | 8 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 1.0% | 100.42 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | DRAGON BOLT | 0.7% | 139.54 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 32
PLACE
1 37.5
4 41.5
5 13
QUINELLA
1,5 289
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 223.5
1,5 96
4,5 88.5
TIERCE
5,1,4 5,066
TRIO
1,4,5 1,039
FIRST 4
1,4,5,12 1,525
QUARTET
5,1,4,12 33,283
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
11/1 111
11/5 124.5