Sha Tin · 2020-01-11

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER STAR, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with MONEY BACK second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BE READY finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.21.90

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SUPER STAR Closed strongly 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · A T Millard	S De Sousa	A T Millard	9	133 lb	4.9	1/2
2	10	MONEY BACK Closed strongly B T H So · P O'Sullivan	T H So	P O'Sullivan	3	116 lb	70.0	1/2
3	6	HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	5	125 lb	9.2	1
4	14	DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly H T Mo · C Fownes	H T Mo	C Fownes	10	112 lb	36.0	1-1/2
5	5	CRAIG'S STAR Led early B T Piccone · C S Shum	T Piccone	C S Shum	11	126 lb	5.6	1-3/4
6	11	UNICORNBABY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson	M F Poon	R Gibson	6	116 lb	11.0	2
7	13	PERFECT PAIR CP K C Leung · W Y So	K C Leung	W Y So	1	116 lb	23.0	2-3/4
8	3	AWE XB1 N Callan · J Moore	N Callan	J Moore	7	129 lb	7.7	3
9	12	KIRAM Closed strongly L Hewitson · D E Ferraris	L Hewitson	D E Ferraris	14	116 lb	79.0	3
10	8	KUNG FU FIGHTER B Shinn · D J Hall	B Shinn	D J Hall	4	123 lb	18.0	3-1/2
11	4	BE READY CP J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	8	128 lb	3.6	4
12	7	DIVINE UNICORN TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui	H N Wong	Y S Tsui	13	120 lb	330.0	4-3/4
13	9	ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man	H W Lai	K L Man	12	122 lb	16.0	5-1/4
14	2	WIND N GRASS A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	2	132 lb	89.0	5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick BE READY (25.3%) finished 11th — the winner SUPER STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	BE READY	25.3%	3.95	11	3.6
2	6	HORSESAIN BOLT	18.0%	5.56	3	9.2
3	1	SUPER STAR	16.3%	6.13	1	4.9
4	5	CRAIG'S STAR	7.5%	13.39	5	5.6
5	8	KUNG FU FIGHTER	5.7%	17.65	10	18.0
6	11	UNICORNBABY	4.6%	21.81	6	11.0
7	14	DEFINING MOMENT	4.2%	24.08	4	36.0
8	13	PERFECT PAIR	4.0%	24.80	7	23.0
9	9	ULTIMATE GLORY	3.6%	27.86	13	16.0
10	3	AWE	3.5%	28.92	8	7.7
11	12	KIRAM	2.7%	36.37	9	79.0
12	2	WIND N GRASS	1.7%	58.86	14	89.0
13	7	DIVINE UNICORN	1.5%	67.10	12	330.0
14	10	MONEY BACK	1.5%	67.14	2	70.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 49.5

PLACE

1 17

6 32.5

10 124.5

QUINELLA

1,10 1,387

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 86.5

1,10 409.5

6,10 776

TIERCE

1,10,6 27,594

TRIO

1,6,10 4,759

FIRST 4

1,6,10,14 14,758

QUARTET

1,10,6,14 308,064

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A3 —

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 104.5

2/10 561.5

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