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Sha Tin · 2020-01-11

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER STAR Closed strongly 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · A T Millard 9 4.9 1/2
2 0 MONEY BACK Closed strongly B T H So · P O'Sullivan 3 70.0 1/2
3 0 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 5 9.2 1
4 0 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly H T Mo · C Fownes 10 36.0 1-1/2
5 0 CRAIG'S STAR Led early B T Piccone · C S Shum 11 5.6 1-3/4
6 0 UNICORNBABY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 6 11.0 2
7 0 PERFECT PAIR CP K C Leung · W Y So 1 23.0 2-3/4
8 0 AWE XB1 N Callan · J Moore 7 7.7 3
9 0 KIRAM Closed strongly L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 14 79.0 3
10 0 KUNG FU FIGHTER B Shinn · D J Hall 4 18.0 3-1/2
11 0 BE READY CP J Moreira · F C Lor 8 3.6 4
12 0 DIVINE UNICORN TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 13 330.0 4-3/4
13 0 ULTIMATE GLORY V H W Lai · K L Man 12 16.0 5-1/4
14 0 WIND N GRASS A Badel · J Size 2 89.0 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER STAR, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with MONEY BACK second and HORSESAIN BOLT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BE READY finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER STAR—2. MONEY BACK+0.5L3. HORSESAIN BOLT+1L4. DEFINING MOMENT+1.5L5. CRAIG'S STAR+1.75L6. UNICORNBABY+2L7. PERFECT PAIR+2.75L8. AWE+3L9. KIRAM+3L10. KUNG FU FIGHTER+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BE READY (25.3%) finished 11th — the winner SUPER STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BE READY 25.3% 3.95 11
2 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 18.0% 5.56 3
3 0 SUPER STAR 16.3% 6.13 1
4 0 CRAIG'S STAR 7.5% 13.39 5
5 0 KUNG FU FIGHTER 5.7% 17.65 10
6 0 UNICORNBABY 4.6% 21.81 6
7 0 DEFINING MOMENT 4.2% 24.08 4
8 0 PERFECT PAIR 4.0% 24.80 7
9 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 3.6% 27.86 13
10 0 AWE 3.5% 28.92 8
11 0 KIRAM 2.7% 36.37 9
12 0 WIND N GRASS 1.7% 58.86 14
13 0 DIVINE UNICORN 1.5% 67.10 12
14 0 MONEY BACK 1.5% 67.14 2
BE READYHORSESAIN BOLTSUPER STAR — wonCRAIG'S STARKUNG FU FIGHTERUNICORNBABYDEFINING MOMENTPERFECT PAIRULTIMATE GLORYAWEKIRAMWIND N GRASSDIVINE UNICORNMONEY BACK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 49.5

PLACE

1 17

6 32.5

10 124.5

QUINELLA

1,10 1,387

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 86.5

1,10 409.5

6,10 776

TIERCE

1,10,6 27,594

TRIO

1,6,10 4,759

FIRST 4

1,6,10,14 14,758

QUARTET

1,10,6,14 308,064

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A3 —

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 104.5

2/10 561.5