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Sha Tin · 2020-01-11

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. INNER FLAME, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with PING HAI BRAVO second and SIMPLY FLUKE third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 INNER FLAME XB 1.09.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 9 1.6 1-1/2
2 6 PING HAI BRAVO J Moreira · J Size 13 21.0 1-1/2
3 13 SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB S De Sousa · C H Yip 11 10.0 2
4 14 U W BROTHER H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 29.0 2-1/2
5 3 WINSTON'S LAD H H N Wong · K W Lui 3 19.0 3-1/4
6 7 WONDER BRAHMA H M F Poon · D J Hall 5 11.0 3-3/4
7 10 HERE COMES TED N Callan · D E Ferraris 1 17.0 4
8 8 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 51.0 4-1/4
9 2 SOLAR POWER B1/XB1 T H So · L Ho 2 19.0 5
10 12 COURAGEOUS DRAGON CP/TT1 T Piccone · W Y So 8 30.0 5
11 9 XIANG LAN QI K C Leung · K L Man 7 253.0 5-1/4
12 5 COOL ACE K Teetan · C W Chang 14 71.0 5-1/2
13 4 BRAVE BABY B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 6 11.0 13-1/4
14 11 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 284.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INNER FLAME2. PING HAI BRAVO+1.5L3. SIMPLY FLUKE+2L4. U W BROTHER+2.5L5. WINSTON'S LAD+3.25L6. WONDER BRAHMA+3.75L7. HERE COMES TED+4L8. MAJESTIC CONQUEROR+4.25L9. SOLAR POWER+5L10. COURAGEOUS DRAGON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PING HAI BRAVO (30.6%) finished 2nd — the winner INNER FLAME was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PING HAI BRAVO 30.6% 3.27 2
2 1 INNER FLAME 23.8% 4.21 1
3 7 WONDER BRAHMA 9.2% 10.90 6
4 10 HERE COMES TED 6.7% 15.01 7
5 13 SIMPLY FLUKE 6.0% 16.59 3
6 4 BRAVE BABY 5.8% 17.11 13
7 14 U W BROTHER 5.1% 19.64 4
8 5 COOL ACE 2.9% 34.89 12
9 12 COURAGEOUS DRAGON 2.6% 38.32 10
10 8 MAJESTIC CONQUEROR 2.4% 41.57 8
11 3 WINSTON'S LAD 2.3% 43.11 5
12 2 SOLAR POWER 1.7% 58.46 9
13 9 XIANG LAN QI 0.4% 222.35 11
14 11 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 0.4% 232.56 14
PING HAI BRAVOINNER FLAME — wonWONDER BRAHMAHERE COMES TEDSIMPLY FLUKEBRAVE BABYU W BROTHERCOOL ACECOURAGEOUS DRAGONMAJESTIC CONQUERORWINSTON'S LADSOLAR POWERXIANG LAN QISPARKLING DOLPHIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 12

6 51.5

13 25

QUINELLA

1,6 139.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 65

1,13 35.5

6,13 313

TIERCE

1,6,13 1,367

TRIO

1,6,13 413

FIRST 4

1,6,13,14 1,740

QUARTET

1,6,13,14 14,796

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 183

4/6 495

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2