Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-01-11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WINNING TOGETHER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by 1/2, with CASIMIRO second and SUNSHINE WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite KING'S RACE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 WINNING TOGETHER Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang 10 17.0 1/2
2 14 CASIMIRO Closed strongly K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 3 5.9 1/2
3 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR CP/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 9 5.6 1/2
4 2 KING'S RACE Led early CP-/B1/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 13 4.1 3/4
5 3 SAM'S LOVE TT K H Chan · C H Yip 7 11.0 1
6 5 MY WINNER Closed strongly B S De Sousa · R Gibson 4 6.3 1-3/4
7 13 BEST FOR YOU B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 12 25.0 1-3/4
8 9 METHANE L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 1 30.0 2-1/2
9 11 ADONIS Closed strongly H A Badel · D J Whyte 8 7.8 3-1/4
10 10 FANTASTIC BOY K C Leung · W Y So 2 69.0 4
11 7 FOREVER SHARP TT B Shinn · C S Shum 6 46.0 4-1/4
12 6 SPEEDY DRAGON B M F Poon · D J Hall 5 15.0 4-1/2
13 8 JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 14 250.0 4-3/4
14 4 LEADING FORTUNE P1 J Moreira · J Size 11 45.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING TOGETHER2. CASIMIRO+0.5L3. SUNSHINE WARRIOR+0.5L4. KING'S RACE+0.75L5. SAM'S LOVE+1L6. MY WINNER+1.75L7. BEST FOR YOU+1.75L8. METHANE+2.5L9. ADONIS+3.25L10. FANTASTIC BOY+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SUNSHINE WARRIOR (12.6%) finished 3rd — the winner WINNING TOGETHER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 12.6% 7.95 3
2 14 CASIMIRO 11.8% 8.46 2
3 2 KING'S RACE 11.7% 8.55 4
4 4 LEADING FORTUNE 10.8% 9.29 14
5 11 ADONIS 10.4% 9.59 9
6 3 SAM'S LOVE 7.9% 12.65 5
7 13 BEST FOR YOU 7.3% 13.77 7
8 5 MY WINNER 6.2% 16.12 6
9 6 SPEEDY DRAGON 6.2% 16.22 12
10 12 WINNING TOGETHER 5.1% 19.43 1
11 7 FOREVER SHARP 3.6% 28.07 11
12 10 FANTASTIC BOY 3.4% 29.41 10
13 9 METHANE 2.2% 45.04 8
14 8 JOY N FUN LEGEND 0.9% 117.44 13
SUNSHINE WARRIORCASIMIROKING'S RACELEADING FORTUNEADONISSAM'S LOVEBEST FOR YOUMY WINNERSPEEDY DRAGONWINNING TOGETHER — wonFOREVER SHARPFANTASTIC BOYMETHANEJOY N FUN LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 178.5

PLACE

1 21

12 52.5

14 21

QUINELLA

12,14 578

QUINELLA PLACE

1,12 223

1,14 69

12,14 176.5

TIERCE

12,14,1 8,517

TRIO

1,12,14 1,171

FIRST 4

1,2,12,14 1,106

QUARTET

12,14,1,2 36,926

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 29.5

A2

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

7/12 815.5

7/14 43

TRIPLE TRIO

7,11,13/3,7,11/1,12,14 1,751,629

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

7,11,13/3,7,11/Any Combination 6,705