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Sha Tin · 2020-01-11

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-11 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DIAMOND LEGEND, ridden by T Piccone and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with LITTLE GENERAL second and SAVVY SEVEN third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite LITTLE GENERAL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DIAMOND LEGEND Wire to wire V/TT 1.35.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · A S Cruz 10 10.0 1-3/4
2 3 LITTLE GENERAL Closed strongly G van Niekerk · C S Shum 9 2.6 1-3/4
3 1 SAVVY SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · J Moore 3 12.0 3
4 5 REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 6 15.0 3
5 10 SKY GEM P/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 7.0 3-1/4
6 2 GOLD VELVET B M F Poon · A T Millard 12 18.0 5
7 6 SOLAR BILLION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 11 56.0 5
8 12 TRIUMPHAL WIN B2/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 5 118.0 5
9 13 MONEY MARSHAL BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 13 11.0 5-1/4
10 9 MONEY WINNER Closed strongly B N Callan · Y S Tsui 14 14.0 6-3/4
11 11 SOCCER MASTER B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 8 40.0 7
12 8 LUCKY SHINY DAY CP T H So · L Ho 2 17.0 7-3/4
13 14 SUNNY MAJOR B-/H- H W Lai · D E Ferraris 4 89.0 9-3/4
14 7 BIG BULLY B J Moreira · D J Hall 7 8.6 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND LEGEND2. LITTLE GENERAL+1.75L3. SAVVY SEVEN+3L4. REEVE'S MUNTJAC+3L5. SKY GEM+3.25L6. GOLD VELVET+5L7. SOLAR BILLION+5L8. TRIUMPHAL WIN+5L9. MONEY MARSHAL+5.25L10. MONEY WINNER+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BIG BULLY (26.0%) finished 14th — the winner DIAMOND LEGEND was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BIG BULLY 26.0% 3.85 14
2 10 SKY GEM 13.3% 7.54 5
3 5 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 10.7% 9.36 4
4 3 LITTLE GENERAL 9.1% 11.03 2
5 2 GOLD VELVET 8.0% 12.54 6
6 4 DIAMOND LEGEND 6.1% 16.51 1
7 8 LUCKY SHINY DAY 5.8% 17.22 12
8 9 MONEY WINNER 4.4% 22.86 10
9 13 MONEY MARSHAL 4.2% 23.83 9
10 11 SOCCER MASTER 3.8% 26.51 11
11 1 SAVVY SEVEN 2.8% 35.43 3
12 6 SOLAR BILLION 2.3% 42.86 7
13 12 TRIUMPHAL WIN 1.8% 54.24 8
14 14 SUNNY MAJOR 1.8% 54.99 13
BIG BULLYSKY GEMREEVE'S MUNTJACLITTLE GENERALGOLD VELVETDIAMOND LEGEND — wonLUCKY SHINY DAYMONEY WINNERMONEY MARSHALSOCCER MASTERSAVVY SEVENSOLAR BILLIONTRIUMPHAL WINSUNNY MAJOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 102.5

PLACE

1 36.5

3 14.5

4 27.5

QUINELLA

3,4 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 78.5

1,4 192

3,4 51

TIERCE

4,3,1 2,474

TRIO

1,3,4 400

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 1,470

QUARTET

4,3,1,5 35,743

1ST DOUBLE

12/3 166.5

12/4 2,597

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 28

A1