沙田 · 2020-01-11
第 2場
2020-01-11沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由T Piccone策騎、A S Cruz訓練的DIAMOND LEGEND勝出，贏出1-3/4。LITTLE GENERAL獲得亞軍；SAVVY SEVEN獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.6倍大熱門LITTLE GENERAL跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DIAMOND LEGEND 一路領先 V/TT 1.35.86 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 10 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | LITTLE GENERAL 後段發力 G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 9 | 2.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | SAVVY SEVEN 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · J Moore | L Hewitson | J Moore | 3 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC 後段發力 B/XB/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 6 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | SKY GEM P/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 7.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | GOLD VELVET B M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 12 | 18.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | SOLAR BILLION 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 11 | 56.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | TRIUMPHAL WIN B2/TT H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 5 | 118.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | MONEY MARSHAL BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | MONEY WINNER 後段發力 B N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 14 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | SOCCER MASTER B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 8 | 40.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | LUCKY SHINY DAY CP T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 2 | 17.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | SUNNY MAJOR B-/H- H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 4 | 89.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | BIG BULLY B J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 7 | 8.6 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BIG BULLY | 26.0% | 3.85 | 14 |
| 2 | 10 | SKY GEM | 13.3% | 7.54 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 10.7% | 9.36 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | LITTLE GENERAL | 9.1% | 11.03 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | GOLD VELVET | 8.0% | 12.54 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 6.1% | 16.51 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY SHINY DAY | 5.8% | 17.22 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | MONEY WINNER | 4.4% | 22.86 | 10 |
| 9 | 13 | MONEY MARSHAL | 4.2% | 23.83 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | SOCCER MASTER | 3.8% | 26.51 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | SAVVY SEVEN | 2.8% | 35.43 | 3 |
| 12 | 6 | SOLAR BILLION | 2.3% | 42.86 | 7 |
| 13 | 12 | TRIUMPHAL WIN | 1.8% | 54.24 | 8 |
| 14 | 14 | SUNNY MAJOR | 1.8% | 54.99 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 102.5
PLACE
1 36.5
3 14.5
4 27.5
QUINELLA
3,4 117.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 78.5
1,4 192
3,4 51
TIERCE
4,3,1 2,474
TRIO
1,3,4 400
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 1,470
QUARTET
4,3,1,5 35,743
1ST DOUBLE
12/3 166.5
12/4 2,597
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 28
A1 —