沙田 · 2020-01-11
第 4場
2020-01-11沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由T Piccone策騎、K W Lui訓練的THIS ONE'S FOR YOU勝出，贏出1。DRAGON COMMANDER獲得亞軍；MEGATRON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.5倍大熱門BEST ALLIANCE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 後段發力 B 1.39.35 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 9 | 4.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER 後段發力 B- N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 20.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 13 | MEGATRON 早段領放 B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 5 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 12 | FOODIE PRINCESS 後段發力 H/TT J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 13 | 4.4 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | DREAM WARRIORS 後段發力 CP/H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 14 | 57.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | KA YING BRILLIANCE V-/XB-/P1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 3 | 60.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE 後段發力 XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | GOOD FIT 後段發力 PC/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 69.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ALL YOU KNOW 後段發力 B/H/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 11 | 31.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | TANGMERE V/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 16.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP H/P K H Chan · L Ho | K H Chan | L Ho | 6 | 18.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 2 | ROMAN IMPERO B H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 2 | 13.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 13 | 8 | GOLDIE FLANKER T H So · K L Man | T H So | K L Man | 10 | 91.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | VICTORY MASTERY B L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 1 | 99.0 | 22-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FOODIE PRINCESS | 30.6% | 3.27 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | BEST ALLIANCE | 19.5% | 5.13 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 8.6% | 11.62 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 6.5% | 15.50 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | TANGMERE | 5.1% | 19.49 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | DREAM WARRIORS | 5.1% | 19.70 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | ALL YOU KNOW | 4.8% | 20.91 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 4.5% | 22.32 | 11 |
| 9 | 13 | MEGATRON | 4.3% | 23.07 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | ROMAN IMPERO | 3.9% | 25.52 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | GOOD FIT | 2.9% | 34.34 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 1.9% | 52.93 | 13 |
| 13 | 14 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 1.4% | 72.82 | 6 |
| 14 | 10 | VICTORY MASTERY | 1.0% | 104.22 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 47.5
PLACE
7 45
11 17.5
13 50.5
QUINELLA
7,11 390
QUINELLA PLACE
7,11 115
7,13 354.5
11,13 124.5
TIERCE
11,7,13 8,108
TRIO
7,11,13 1,791
FIRST 4
7,11,12,13 1,301
QUARTET
11,7,13,12 31,938
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,13/7,11,13 239,742
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 30
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/7 64.5
1/11 92