沙田 · 2020-01-11
第 3場
2020-01-11沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Badel策騎、D J Whyte訓練的INNER FLAME勝出，贏出1-1/2。PING HAI BRAVO獲得亞軍；SIMPLY FLUKE獲得季軍。頭馬以1.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | INNER FLAME XB 1.09.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 9 | 1.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | PING HAI BRAVO J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 13 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/XB S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 11 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 14 | U W BROTHER H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 29.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | WINSTON'S LAD H H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 3 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | WONDER BRAHMA H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | HERE COMES TED N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 10 | 51.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SOLAR POWER B1/XB1 T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 2 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON CP/TT1 T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 8 | 30.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | XIANG LAN QI K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 253.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | COOL ACE K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 14 | 71.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | BRAVE BABY B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 6 | 11.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 12 | 284.0 | 15 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PING HAI BRAVO | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | INNER FLAME | 23.8% | 4.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | WONDER BRAHMA | 9.2% | 10.90 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | HERE COMES TED | 6.7% | 15.01 | 7 |
| 5 | 13 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 6.0% | 16.59 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | BRAVE BABY | 5.8% | 17.11 | 13 |
| 7 | 14 | U W BROTHER | 5.1% | 19.64 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | COOL ACE | 2.9% | 34.89 | 12 |
| 9 | 12 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 2.6% | 38.32 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | MAJESTIC CONQUEROR | 2.4% | 41.57 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | WINSTON'S LAD | 2.3% | 43.11 | 5 |
| 12 | 2 | SOLAR POWER | 1.7% | 58.46 | 9 |
| 13 | 9 | XIANG LAN QI | 0.4% | 222.35 | 11 |
| 14 | 11 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN | 0.4% | 232.56 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 16
PLACE
1 12
6 51.5
13 25
QUINELLA
1,6 139.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 65
1,13 35.5
6,13 313
TIERCE
1,6,13 1,367
TRIO
1,6,13 413
FIRST 4
1,6,13,14 1,740
QUARTET
1,6,13,14 14,796
2ND DOUBLE
4/1 183
4/6 495
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16
A2 —