Happy Valley · 2020-01-22
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SKY GEM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-3/4, with ART OF RAW second and VICTORIOUS SEEKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite GARLIC YEAH finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SKY GEM Closed strongly P/TT 2.17.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | ART OF RAW Closed strongly H/TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 1 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | WICKER Closed strongly B K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 2 | 5.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 9 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | GARLIC YEAH B Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 6 | 3.7 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | CHAPARRAL STAR Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 11 | 24.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | AEROFLASH L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan | L Hewitson | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 63.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY B/H/TT J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 3 | 4.9 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 5 | 122.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | DIVINE POWER Led early B T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 8 | 32.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ROMANTIC JOURNEY | 20.5% | 4.88 | 10 |
| 2 | 9 | WICKER | 16.8% | 5.96 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 11.0% | 9.12 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 10.4% | 9.60 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | GARLIC YEAH | 10.1% | 9.90 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | SKY GEM | 7.3% | 13.68 | 1 |
| 7 | 7 | DIVINE POWER | 6.6% | 15.13 | 12 |
| 8 | 8 | ART OF RAW | 6.2% | 16.01 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | YOUNG GLORY | 4.1% | 24.43 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | CHAPARRAL STAR | 3.7% | 26.74 | 8 |
| 11 | 3 | AEROFLASH | 2.0% | 49.98 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | GREAT SMART | 1.3% | 79.80 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 99.5
PLACE
5 29.5
8 32
10 30
QUINELLA
8,10 560
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 137
5,10 158.5
8,10 170.5
TIERCE
10,8,5 11,166
TRIO
5,8,10 1,682
FIRST 4
5,8,10,11 5,887
QUARTET
10,8,5,11 172,087
3 PICK 1
A2 26
A1 —
A3 —