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Happy Valley · 2020-01-22

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2200m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.17.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly P/TT 2.17.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 9.9 2-3/4
2 0 ART OF RAW Closed strongly H/TT B Shinn · C W Chang 1 10.0 2-3/4
3 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 4 10.0 3-1/2
4 0 YOUNG GLORY Closed strongly B N Callan · D E Ferraris 7 15.0 4-1/4
5 0 WICKER Closed strongly B K Teetan · R Gibson 2 5.2 4-3/4
6 0 REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 9 10.0 5-3/4
7 0 GARLIC YEAH B Z Purton · C H Yip 6 3.7 7
8 0 CHAPARRAL STAR Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 24.0 7-1/2
9 0 AEROFLASH L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan 12 63.0 8-1/2
10 0 ROMANTIC JOURNEY B/H/TT J Moreira · C W Chang 3 4.9 9-1/2
11 0 GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho 5 122.0 11-1/4
12 0 DIVINE POWER Led early B T Piccone · P F Yiu 8 32.0 11-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SKY GEM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-3/4, with ART OF RAW second and VICTORIOUS SEEKER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite GARLIC YEAH finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY GEM—2. ART OF RAW+2.75L3. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3.5L4. YOUNG GLORY+4.25L5. WICKER+4.75L6. REEVE'S MUNTJAC+5.75L7. GARLIC YEAH+7L8. CHAPARRAL STAR+7.5L9. AEROFLASH+8.5L10. ROMANTIC JOURNEY+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ROMANTIC JOURNEY (20.5%) finished 10th — the winner SKY GEM was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ROMANTIC JOURNEY 20.5% 4.88 10
2 0 WICKER 16.8% 5.96 5
3 0 REEVE'S MUNTJAC 11.0% 9.12 6
4 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 10.4% 9.60 3
5 0 GARLIC YEAH 10.1% 9.90 7
6 0 SKY GEM 7.3% 13.68 1
7 0 DIVINE POWER 6.6% 15.13 12
8 0 ART OF RAW 6.2% 16.01 2
9 0 YOUNG GLORY 4.1% 24.43 4
10 0 CHAPARRAL STAR 3.7% 26.74 8
11 0 AEROFLASH 2.0% 49.98 9
12 0 GREAT SMART 1.3% 79.80 11
ROMANTIC JOURNEYWICKERREEVE'S MUNTJACVICTORIOUS SEEKERGARLIC YEAHSKY GEM — wonDIVINE POWERART OF RAWYOUNG GLORYCHAPARRAL STARAEROFLASHGREAT SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 99.5

PLACE

5 29.5

8 32

10 30

QUINELLA

8,10 560

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 137

5,10 158.5

8,10 170.5

TIERCE

10,8,5 11,166

TRIO

5,8,10 1,682

FIRST 4

5,8,10,11 5,887

QUARTET

10,8,5,11 172,087

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26