Happy Valley · 2020-01-22
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HINCHINLOVE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with GREEN REIGN second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 2.8 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 6 | 8.4 | N |
| 2 | 9 | GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 14.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 8 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | RELENTLESS ME B/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 12 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | POWERMAX B L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 4 | 35.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | HERCULES T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 7 | 292.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | SPECIAL STARS K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 11 | 72.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | SPEED VISION B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 10 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | WINNING METHOD B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 2.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | FRESH POWER B/TT S De Sousa · Y S Tsui | S De Sousa | Y S Tsui | 3 | 8.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | AFRICAN SKY TT B Shinn · K H Ting | B Shinn | K H Ting | 5 | 260.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | WINNING METHOD | 21.5% | 4.66 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | RELENTLESS ME | 13.5% | 7.40 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | FRESH POWER | 10.4% | 9.65 | 11 |
| 5 | 8 | HINCHINLOVE | 9.3% | 10.77 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | CALIFORNIA TURBO | 7.2% | 13.86 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | SPECIAL STARS | 4.1% | 24.42 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | POWERMAX | 3.4% | 29.82 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | GREEN REIGN | 3.0% | 33.32 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | SPEED VISION | 1.6% | 63.00 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | AFRICAN SKY | 0.7% | 152.61 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | HERCULES | 0.5% | 193.08 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 84.5
PLACE
3 13.5
8 23
9 35.5
QUINELLA
8,9 527
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 52.5
3,9 91.5
8,9 145
TIERCE
8,9,3 5,309
TRIO
3,8,9 675
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 953
QUARTET
8,9,3,7 26,141
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,11/3,8,9 110,495
8TH DOUBLE
2/8 1,133.5
2/9 305
SIX UP
2/2/4,9/10/2/8 1,238,378
2,8/2,7/3,4,9/10,12/2,11/8,9 14,772
4 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
10/2/8 39,788
10/2/9 8,287