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Happy Valley · 2020-01-22

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HINCHINLOVE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with GREEN REIGN second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 2.8 favourite WINNING METHOD finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 HINCHINLOVE B/TT 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 6 8.4 N
2 9 GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 14.0 N
3 3 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE M F Poon · D J Hall 1 3.3 2
4 7 CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 8 11.0 2
5 11 RELENTLESS ME B/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte 12 14.0 2-3/4
6 10 POWERMAX B L Hewitson · R Gibson 4 35.0 2-3/4
7 5 HERCULES T H So · C H Yip 7 292.0 3
8 2 SPECIAL STARS K Teetan · J Size 11 72.0 3-1/2
9 1 SPEED VISION B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor 10 28.0 4-1/4
10 4 WINNING METHOD B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 9 2.8 4-1/2
11 12 FRESH POWER B/TT S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 3 8.1 5-1/2
12 6 AFRICAN SKY TT B Shinn · K H Ting 5 260.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HINCHINLOVE2. GREEN REIGN+0.05L3. QUADRUPLE DOUBLE+2L4. CALIFORNIA TURBO+2L5. RELENTLESS ME+2.75L6. POWERMAX+2.75L7. HERCULES+3L8. SPECIAL STARS+3.5L9. SPEED VISION+4.25L10. WINNING METHOD+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick QUADRUPLE DOUBLE (24.9%) finished 3rd — the winner HINCHINLOVE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 QUADRUPLE DOUBLE 24.9% 4.01 3
2 4 WINNING METHOD 21.5% 4.66 10
3 11 RELENTLESS ME 13.5% 7.40 5
4 12 FRESH POWER 10.4% 9.65 11
5 8 HINCHINLOVE 9.3% 10.77 1
6 7 CALIFORNIA TURBO 7.2% 13.86 4
7 2 SPECIAL STARS 4.1% 24.42 8
8 10 POWERMAX 3.4% 29.82 6
9 9 GREEN REIGN 3.0% 33.32 2
10 1 SPEED VISION 1.6% 63.00 9
11 6 AFRICAN SKY 0.7% 152.61 12
12 5 HERCULES 0.5% 193.08 7
QUADRUPLE DOUBLEWINNING METHODRELENTLESS MEFRESH POWERHINCHINLOVE — wonCALIFORNIA TURBOSPECIAL STARSPOWERMAXGREEN REIGNSPEED VISIONAFRICAN SKYHERCULES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 84.5

PLACE

3 13.5

8 23

9 35.5

QUINELLA

8,9 527

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 52.5

3,9 91.5

8,9 145

TIERCE

8,9,3 5,309

TRIO

3,8,9 675

FIRST 4

3,7,8,9 953

QUARTET

8,9,3,7 26,141

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 21

A3

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,11/3,8,9 110,495

8TH DOUBLE

2/8 1,133.5

2/9 305

SIX UP

2/2/4,9/10/2/8 1,238,378

2,8/2,7/3,4,9/10,12/2,11/8,9 14,772

4 [C Y Ho]

TREBLE

10/2/8 39,788

10/2/9 8,287