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Happy Valley · 2020-01-22

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DOR DOR Closed strongly H 1.40.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 1 1.9 1/2
2 0 STARLIT KNIGHT Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 7 9.3 1/2
3 0 FULL POWER Closed strongly XB/B1 B Shinn · R Gibson 3 13.0 1-3/4
4 0 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 14.0 2
5 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 5 12.0 2-1/4
6 0 BEAUTY ANGEL Led early TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz 8 140.0 3
7 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE H/V T H So · L Ho 2 10.0 3-1/4
8 0 SANGRIA B N Callan · D E Ferraris 6 11.0 4
9 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS P-/B2 H W Lai · C W Chang 4 55.0 4-3/4
10 0 RIGHTEOUS MATE T Piccone · A T Millard 12 7.8 5
11 0 ROMAN IMPERO B H N Wong · C H Yip 10 40.0 13-3/4
— 0 AFTER ME K H Chan · P F Yiu — — —
— 0 SUNNY POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DOR DOR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with STARLIT KNIGHT second and FULL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DOR DOR—2. STARLIT KNIGHT+0.5L3. FULL POWER+1.75L4. BRIGHT KID+2L5. DOCTORS DELIGHT+2.25L6. BEAUTY ANGEL+3L7. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+3.25L8. SANGRIA+4L9. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+4.75L10. RIGHTEOUS MATE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DOR DOR (37.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DOR DOR 37.4% 2.68 1
2 0 DOCTORS DELIGHT 12.2% 8.18 5
3 0 RIGHTEOUS MATE 12.2% 8.18 10
4 0 BRIGHT KID 7.7% 12.94 4
5 0 SANGRIA 7.7% 13.01 8
6 0 FULL POWER 6.7% 14.96 3
7 0 STARLIT KNIGHT 6.3% 16.00 2
8 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 3.8% 26.33 7
9 0 ROMAN IMPERO 3.0% 32.83 11
10 0 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 1.8% 55.02 9
11 0 BEAUTY ANGEL 1.2% 84.74 6
DOR DOR — wonDOCTORS DELIGHTRIGHTEOUS MATEBRIGHT KIDSANGRIAFULL POWERSTARLIT KNIGHTSUMSTREETSUMWHEREROMAN IMPEROENJOYABLE SUCCESSBEAUTY ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 19

PLACE

3 25.5

4 11

6 30

QUINELLA

3,4 75

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 32.5

3,6 152.5

4,6 47.5

TIERCE

4,3,6 945

TRIO

3,4,6 296

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 1,045

QUARTET

4,3,6,5 10,686

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16.5

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/3 65

2/4,9 101.5