Happy Valley · 2020-01-22
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHAMPORT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with CONFUCIUS DAY second and CALIFORNIA RAD third. The 3.5 favourite CALIFORNIA RAD finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SHAMPORT TT 1.10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 8 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | CALIFORNIA RAD TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 6 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | CHARGE ON H L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 2 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | THIS IS CHARISMA H H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 9 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | BEST SMILE TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 1 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | AURORA STEED B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | NOBLE CONSORT B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 3 | 63.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 5.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B-/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 11 | 55.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | FLYING PHOTOS H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 12 | 229.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | LET'S GO PARTY TT- T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 5 | 251.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | AURORA STEED | 23.1% | 4.33 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | BEST SMILE | 18.9% | 5.28 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 12.6% | 7.92 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 10.8% | 9.22 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | CHARGE ON | 8.6% | 11.68 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | SHAMPORT | 7.6% | 13.09 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 5.6% | 17.87 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | VOYAGE STAR | 3.8% | 26.17 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | FLYING PHOTOS | 3.4% | 29.37 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 2.9% | 34.19 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | NOBLE CONSORT | 1.4% | 70.34 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | LET'S GO PARTY | 1.1% | 88.28 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 43.5
PLACE
2 20
4 14
9 15
QUINELLA
2,4 140
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 46
2,9 37
4,9 33.5
TIERCE
4,2,9 689
TRIO
2,4,9 108
FIRST 4
2,4,5,9 192
QUARTET
4,2,9,5 4,368
2ND DOUBLE
12/2 27.5
12/4 163
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 21
A1 —
A3 —