Happy Valley · 2020-01-22
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COMPASSION STAR, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 2-1/2, with WAYFOONG CHARMER second and NAVAS third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | COMPASSION STAR 1.09.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 2 | 3.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | WAYFOONG CHARMER BO K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | NAVAS B/XB H T Mo · R Gibson | H T Mo | R Gibson | 1 | 9.1 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | NOBLE DESIRE B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | ALL TIMES GRATEFUL Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 3.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | FOCUS B/TT1 T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 12 | 8.9 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | EURO LAGO B1 B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 6 | 45.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 9 | 216.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | SPLENDID TIMING B/TT- M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 7 | 25.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | E MASTER V-/XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 10 | 7.9 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | DIAMOND STAR J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 24.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SPARKLING LIFE B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 8 | 134.0 | 16-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | DIAMOND STAR | 16.8% | 5.95 | 11 |
| 2 | 10 | ALL TIMES GRATEFUL | 16.7% | 6.00 | 5 |
| 3 | 12 | COMPASSION STAR | 15.8% | 6.31 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | NAVAS | 15.1% | 6.60 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | FOCUS | 11.6% | 8.61 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | WAYFOONG CHARMER | 6.8% | 14.72 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | NOBLE DESIRE | 5.6% | 17.90 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | SPLENDID TIMING | 5.2% | 19.30 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | EURO LAGO | 2.6% | 37.84 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | E MASTER | 2.0% | 49.13 | 10 |
| 11 | 8 | SPARKLING LIFE | 1.1% | 94.83 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | GENERAL CASTLEDALE | 0.6% | 156.05 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 33
PLACE
2 22.5
11 32
12 15
QUINELLA
11,12 180
QUINELLA PLACE
2,11 203.5
2,12 45
11,12 61
TIERCE
12,11,2 2,629
TRIO
2,11,12 678
FIRST 4
2,3,11,12 1,210
QUARTET
12,11,2,3 19,442
1ST DOUBLE
10/11 408.5
10/12 413.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 16.5
A2 —