Happy Valley · 2020-02-05
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT 1.10.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 8 | 33.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | DEMONS ROCK B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | NASHASHUK P/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | SHOW MISSION B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 6 | 8.7 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | TRIUMPHANT LORD TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 9.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | LA BOMBA B-/TT2 J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 5 | 4.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | EXPONENTS V H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 36.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B2/TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 4 | 14.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | STARLOT B T Piccone · P O'Sullivan | T Piccone | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 17.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | LIGHTNING MISSILE B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 2 | 4.1 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | GOLDEN GENERAL CP H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 3 | 29.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | JIMSON THE DRAGON B/XB/TT M L Yeung · C H Yip | M L Yeung | C H Yip | 12 | 56.0 | 14-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-05 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FOX CHEUNGER, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with DEMONS ROCK second and NASHASHUK third. The 4.1 favourite LIGHTNING MISSILE finished 10th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LA BOMBA | 19.9% | 5.03 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | NASHASHUK | 14.2% | 7.05 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | LIGHTNING MISSILE | 11.7% | 8.56 | 10 |
| 4 | 0 | DEMONS ROCK | 11.5% | 8.69 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | SHOW MISSION | 9.1% | 11.02 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | TRIUMPHANT LORD | 7.2% | 13.93 | 5 |
| 7 | 0 | STARLOT | 6.0% | 16.74 | 9 |
| 8 | 0 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 5.8% | 17.24 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | EXPONENTS | 5.1% | 19.61 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 5.0% | 20.10 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | FOX CHEUNGER | 2.8% | 35.91 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 1.9% | 53.86 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 336
PLACE
4 22
11 82.5
12 29.5
QUINELLA
4,11 1,011
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 293.5
4,12 118
11,12 424.5
TIERCE
11,4,12 19,776
TRIO
4,11,12 2,375
FIRST 4
4,9,11,12 3,583
QUARTET
11,4,12,9 136,588
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 28.5
A2 —