Happy Valley · 2020-02-05
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | METHANE Closed strongly 1.39.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 7 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY Closed strongly CP/H K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 8 | 8.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | HARRIER JET Closed strongly V-/B2/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | ENJOY LIFE Closed strongly B J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 11 | 14.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 2 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | POLYMER LUCK B G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 4 | 4.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly H-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 12 | 6.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 9 | 23.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 10 | 5.6 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | VILLA FIONN B M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 6 | 7.2 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE Led early H/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | 1 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | TOUCH OF FAITH B/SR K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 5 | 80.0 | 7-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-05 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. METHANE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 3/4, with LET'S TAKE IT EASY second and HARRIER JET third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite POLYMER LUCK finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | POLYMER LUCK | 15.1% | 6.63 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | ENJOY LIFE | 13.2% | 7.60 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | HARRIER JET | 13.1% | 7.64 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | CITY LEGEND | 12.7% | 7.88 | 9 |
| 5 | 0 | VILLA FIONN | 10.8% | 9.27 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 9.2% | 10.85 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 5.8% | 17.13 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | LET'S TAKE IT EASY | 5.5% | 18.27 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | SUPREME PLUS | 5.1% | 19.67 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | PLAY WISE | 4.7% | 21.25 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | METHANE | 3.0% | 33.08 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | TOUCH OF FAITH | 1.9% | 53.85 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 160.5
PLACE
2 37
3 22
8 48
QUINELLA
3,8 558
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 132.5
2,8 279.5
3,8 190
TIERCE
8,3,2 10,697
TRIO
2,3,8 2,104
FIRST 4
2,3,8,10 5,169
QUARTET
8,3,2,10 115,099
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 45
8/8 503
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 22.5
A1 —
A2 —