Happy Valley · 2020-02-05
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOOD FOR YOU, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with CALIFORNIA RAD second and MEHBOOB third. The 3.3 favourite WINNER'S HEART finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GOOD FOR YOU B 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 2 | 7.8 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | CALIFORNIA RAD CP1/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | 11 | 7.1 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | MEHBOOB XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | WINNER'S HEART Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | CEREFINO TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 9 | 36.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | LORIZ B K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.1 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | AURORA STEED B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 8.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | FOREVER SHARP TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SMART THINKER B/XB N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 7 | 331.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | KING PRINT B H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 1 | 119.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | DASHING GRACE P1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 221.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WINNER'S HEART | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | AURORA STEED | 16.7% | 6.00 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | MEHBOOB | 16.4% | 6.08 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | LORIZ | 14.9% | 6.72 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 8.4% | 11.95 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | GOOD FOR YOU | 7.8% | 12.83 | 1 |
| 7 | 11 | SHINING ON | 4.7% | 21.28 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | CEREFINO | 3.8% | 26.03 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | FOREVER SHARP | 2.7% | 37.31 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | DASHING GRACE | 2.2% | 45.63 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | KING PRINT | 1.0% | 97.46 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | SMART THINKER | 0.6% | 172.99 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 78
PLACE
3 18.5
4 23
9 25.5
QUINELLA
4,9 287.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 63.5
3,9 81.5
4,9 85
TIERCE
4,9,3 3,296
TRIO
3,4,9 519
FIRST 4
3,4,5,9 320
QUARTET
4,9,3,5 10,160
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,8/3,4,9 111,948
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 34
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/4 1,200.5
8/9 199.5