Happy Valley · 2020-02-05
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-02-05 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. THUNDER STOMP, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-1/4, with DOR DOR second and CASA DE FORCA third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite CASA DE FORCA finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP Wire to wire 1.40.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 6 | 8.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | DOR DOR Closed strongly H K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 7.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | CASA DE FORCA Closed strongly CP J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 4 | 2.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | FLAME LILY TT T Piccone · F C Lor | T Piccone | F C Lor | 5 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 10 | 5.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | MANAGEMENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 6.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | TUNG WAH GLORY Closed strongly P M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 8 | 196.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | ORIENTAL ELITE N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | BULB ELITE Closed strongly B- A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 12 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FANTASTIC BOY B1 K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 3 | 28.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SNOW AIRJET B/TT1 H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 2 | 109.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPREME PATROL B-/SR1 Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 11 | 42.0 | 6-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | CASA DE FORCA | 20.7% | 4.83 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | DOR DOR | 18.4% | 5.44 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | MANAGEMENT STAR | 14.9% | 6.70 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | FLAME LILY | 11.3% | 8.86 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | THUNDER STOMP | 8.8% | 11.42 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | ORIENTAL ELITE | 7.7% | 13.00 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED | 6.2% | 16.26 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | FANTASTIC BOY | 3.8% | 25.99 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPREME PATROL | 3.4% | 29.15 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | BULB ELITE | 2.1% | 47.83 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | SNOW AIRJET | 1.7% | 59.76 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | TUNG WAH GLORY | 1.0% | 96.39 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 89
PLACE
1 25
4 20
5 12.5
QUINELLA
1,4 223.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 70.5
1,5 46
4,5 40
TIERCE
1,4,5 1,335
TRIO
1,4,5 164
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 299
QUARTET
1,4,5,2 8,499
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
4/1 460.5
4/4 54.5