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Sha Tin · 2020-02-19

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C W Chang, won by 3/4, with RED ELYSEES second and VOLPINO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB 1.48.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C W Chang 4 2.8 3/4
2 6 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B T Piccone · K L Man 7 11.0 3/4
3 5 VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 1 17.0 3/4
4 7 ENFOLDING Closed strongly V Z Purton · C Fownes 12 9.1 1-1/2
5 1 HOLY HEART Closed strongly B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 5.8 2-1/4
6 12 OWNERS' STAR B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum 13 13.0 3-1/4
7 2 HAPPY SEBRING Closed strongly B-/PC2/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 6 16.0 4
8 13 UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D E Ferraris 8 25.0 5
9 14 GENERAL DINO B M Chadwick · D E Ferraris 14 49.0 5-3/4
10 10 SMILING CITY Led early P B Shinn · D J Whyte 9 23.0 5-3/4
11 11 I DO B/TT K C Leung · W Y So 3 6.8 6-3/4
12 8 MONGOLIAN LEGEND P2 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 2 24.0 8-1/2
13 4 WIND GLIDER B N Callan · P O'Sullivan 10 209.0 16-1/2
14 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT CP1/TT A Badel · J Moore 5 124.0 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE2. RED ELYSEES+0.75L3. VOLPINO+0.75L4. ENFOLDING+1.5L5. HOLY HEART+2.25L6. OWNERS' STAR+3.25L7. HAPPY SEBRING+4L8. UNITE SPIRIT+5L9. GENERAL DINO+5.75L10. SMILING CITY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE (25.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 25.3% 3.95 1
2 1 HOLY HEART 14.9% 6.72 5
3 7 ENFOLDING 11.0% 9.08 4
4 5 VOLPINO 10.1% 9.87 3
5 11 I DO 8.1% 12.41 11
6 2 HAPPY SEBRING 7.1% 14.14 7
7 6 RED ELYSEES 6.5% 15.29 2
8 12 OWNERS' STAR 5.8% 17.31 6
9 14 GENERAL DINO 2.4% 41.62 9
10 8 MONGOLIAN LEGEND 2.1% 46.93 12
11 13 UNITE SPIRIT 2.0% 50.35 8
12 10 SMILING CITY 1.9% 53.07 10
13 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 1.6% 61.90 14
14 4 WIND GLIDER 1.2% 86.08 13
RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE — wonHOLY HEARTENFOLDINGVOLPINOI DOHAPPY SEBRINGRED ELYSEESOWNERS' STARGENERAL DINOMONGOLIAN LEGENDUNITE SPIRITSMILING CITYLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTWIND GLIDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 28.5

PLACE

5 47

6 31

9 14.5

QUINELLA

6,9 175

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 166

5,9 78.5

6,9 70

TIERCE

9,6,5 1,707

TRIO

5,6,9 352

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 654

QUARTET

9,6,5,7 8,965

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 19

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/6 84.5

1/9 120.5