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Sha Tin · 2020-02-19

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUPER POWER MAN, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with ZERO HEDGE second and DREAM WARRIORS third. The 2.7 favourite PARTY GENIUS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SUPER POWER MAN 1.09.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man 12 24.0 1-1/4
2 4 ZERO HEDGE PC/XB J Moreira · J Size 4 5.7 1-1/4
3 2 DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 9 30.0 2
4 1 LADY FIRST XB2/TT G van Niekerk · K H Ting 5 9.4 2
5 5 COOLCELEB B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 2 26.0 2-1/2
6 9 DAILY BEAUTY B1/TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes 11 9.9 2-3/4
7 6 PARTY GENIUS XB1 A Badel · D J Whyte 8 2.7 3-1/4
8 7 SO WE JOY TT1 N Callan · J Moore 7 137.0 4-1/4
9 10 SKY TREASURE H M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 6 7.8 5-1/2
10 12 ISLAND WINNER CP-/XB/P1/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 24.0 6-1/2
11 11 GOLDEN EFFORT B M F Poon · D E Ferraris 1 40.0 18
12 3 UNDEFEATED B H N Wong · K W Lui 10 6.8 31-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER POWER MAN2. ZERO HEDGE+1.25L3. DREAM WARRIORS+2L4. LADY FIRST+2L5. COOLCELEB+2.5L6. DAILY BEAUTY+2.75L7. PARTY GENIUS+3.25L8. SO WE JOY+4.25L9. SKY TREASURE+5.5L10. ISLAND WINNER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LADY FIRST (19.7%) finished 4th — the winner SUPER POWER MAN was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LADY FIRST 19.7% 5.08 4
2 4 ZERO HEDGE 16.3% 6.13 2
3 3 UNDEFEATED 16.1% 6.22 12
4 12 ISLAND WINNER 11.0% 9.10 10
5 9 DAILY BEAUTY 10.0% 9.99 6
6 6 PARTY GENIUS 7.2% 13.88 7
7 2 DREAM WARRIORS 6.1% 16.43 3
8 8 SUPER POWER MAN 3.6% 27.75 1
9 7 SO WE JOY 3.5% 28.79 8
10 10 SKY TREASURE 3.3% 29.94 9
11 11 GOLDEN EFFORT 1.8% 54.61 11
12 5 COOLCELEB 1.4% 72.69 5
LADY FIRSTZERO HEDGEUNDEFEATEDISLAND WINNERDAILY BEAUTYPARTY GENIUSDREAM WARRIORSSUPER POWER MAN — wonSO WE JOYSKY TREASUREGOLDEN EFFORTCOOLCELEB

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 243.5

PLACE

2 56.5

4 17.5

8 52

QUINELLA

4,8 633.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 138

2,8 683

4,8 187

TIERCE

8,4,2 22,139

TRIO

2,4,8 3,580

FIRST 4

1,2,4,8 5,521

QUARTET

8,4,2,1 165,012

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/2,4,8 709,094

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 30.5

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE

8/4 72.5

8/8 1,979