Sha Tin · 2020-02-19
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RED DESERT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/4, with WILL POWER second and HANDSOME REBEL third. The 2.3 favourite WILL POWER finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RED DESERT 1.08.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL B2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 44.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SILVER FIG B1 G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 4 | 8.9 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | FRUSTRATED B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 7 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | BALTIC SUCCESS XB1/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 1 | 9.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 58.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 42.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 12 | 39.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 11 | 18.0 | 9-1/4 |
| — | 4 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 10 | 74.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WILL POWER | 27.4% | 3.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | RED DESERT | 19.3% | 5.18 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SILVER FIG | 11.1% | 8.99 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | BALTIC SUCCESS | 9.0% | 11.09 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 8.5% | 11.82 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 6.0% | 16.62 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | FRUSTRATED | 5.8% | 17.25 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL | 4.5% | 22.07 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 4.0% | 25.30 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT | 2.9% | 34.20 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 1.4% | 69.24 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 34.5
PLACE
1 13
8 14
11 32
QUINELLA
1,8 39
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 20
1,11 64.5
8,11 52
TIERCE
1,8,11 639
TRIO
1,8,11 110
FIRST 4
1,8,11,12 658
QUARTET
1,8,11,12 10,912
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,9,12/1,8,11 1,368
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A2 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
9/1 92.5
9/8 10.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,8/6,9,12/1,8,11 1,113,864
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,8/6,9,12/Any Combination 10,578