沙田 · 2020-02-19
第 6場
2020-02-19沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的RED DESERT勝出，贏出1-1/4。WILL POWER獲得亞軍；HANDSOME REBEL獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門WILL POWER跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RED DESERT 1.08.35 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | WILL POWER XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 2.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL B2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 3 | 44.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SILVER FIG B1 G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 4 | 8.9 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | FRUSTRATED B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 7 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | BALTIC SUCCESS XB1/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 1 | 9.2 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 2 | 58.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 42.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 12 | 39.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 11 | 18.0 | 9-1/4 |
| — | 4 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 10 | 74.0 | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WILL POWER | 27.4% | 3.64 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | RED DESERT | 19.3% | 5.18 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SILVER FIG | 11.1% | 8.99 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | BALTIC SUCCESS | 9.0% | 11.09 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 8.5% | 11.82 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 6.0% | 16.62 | 11 |
| 7 | 7 | FRUSTRATED | 5.8% | 17.25 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | HANDSOME REBEL | 4.5% | 22.07 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 4.0% | 25.30 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | WHISKEY NEAT | 2.9% | 34.20 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 1.4% | 69.24 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 34.5
PLACE
1 13
8 14
11 32
QUINELLA
1,8 39
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 20
1,11 64.5
8,11 52
TIERCE
1,8,11 639
TRIO
1,8,11 110
FIRST 4
1,8,11,12 658
QUARTET
1,8,11,12 10,912
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,9,12/1,8,11 1,368
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 14
A2 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
9/1 92.5
9/8 10.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,8/6,9,12/1,8,11 1,113,864
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,8/6,9,12/Any Combination 10,578