沙田 · 2020-02-19
第 2場
2020-02-19沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由N Callan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的HIDDEN SPIRIT勝出，贏出HD。KA YING BRILLIANCE獲得亞軍；SUPER RED DRAGON獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.6倍大熱門SUPER RED DRAGON跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT 1.40.00 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 9.5 | HD |
| 2 | 4 | KA YING BRILLIANCE 後段發力 P/H2/XB2 T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 2 | 4.9 | HD |
| 3 | 2 | SUPER RED DRAGON 後段發力 B/H/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HAY RUN 後段發力 H-/TT- K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY 後段發力 B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 6 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | ROCKAGE B/H/XB/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 13 | 34.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | SKY GEM 後段發力 P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 8 | 165.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | KEEP WINNING TT C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | WINNING WARRIOR 早段領放 H-/V1 B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 5 | 83.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | WINNING CIRCLE B-/H-/PC2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 13.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | OUR GREEN B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 10 | 17.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | MI BLANCO B/TT J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 6.1 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | SOLAR BILLION B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 14 | 58.0 | 17 |
| — | 0 | SUNNY MAJOR H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | MASTER BERNINI C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 15.4% | 6.48 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | MI BLANCO | 14.8% | 6.78 | 13 |
| 3 | 9 | KEEP WINNING | 13.2% | 7.57 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 12.5% | 7.98 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | SKY GEM | 10.0% | 10.00 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 5.9% | 16.88 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 5.7% | 17.61 | 1 |
| 8 | 13 | SOLAR BILLION | 4.7% | 21.24 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | HAY RUN | 4.1% | 24.62 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | WINNING CIRCLE | 3.8% | 26.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 14 | ROCKAGE | 3.8% | 26.49 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | OUR GREEN | 3.7% | 26.67 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | GREAT SMART | 1.3% | 79.23 | 8 |
| 14 | 7 | WINNING WARRIOR | 1.1% | 91.68 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 95
PLACE
2 16
4 22.5
8 27.5
QUINELLA
4,8 219.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 57.5
2,8 78.5
4,8 97
TIERCE
8,4,2 2,623
TRIO
2,4,8 363
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 1,716
QUARTET
8,4,2,1 43,636
1ST DOUBLE
1/4 37
1/8 450.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 26