沙田 · 2020-02-19
第 3場
2020-02-19沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由H T Mo策騎、L Ho訓練的VIVA COUNCIL勝出，贏出1/2。SHIMMER AND SHINE獲得亞軍；STRATHCLYDE獲得季軍。3.2倍大熱門IRON KING跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | VIVA COUNCIL V 1.09.99 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 7.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | SHIMMER AND SHINE CP1 N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 6 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | STRATHCLYDE B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | EXCEL DELIGHT H C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 7 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B/H M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | IRON KING H2 J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 2 | 3.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | AFTER ME TT- K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 4 | 31.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | WONDER BRAHMA H M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS B- M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 12 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | FAIRY TWINS TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 11 | 36.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | WINS ALL A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 14.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | HARBOUR ALERT B-/CP2/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 5 | 22.0 | 26-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | IRON KING | 34.9% | 2.87 | 6 |
| 2 | 9 | AFTER ME | 11.0% | 9.13 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | WONDER BRAHMA | 10.1% | 9.87 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | EXCEL DELIGHT | 9.4% | 10.60 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | SHIMMER AND SHINE | 7.2% | 13.86 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | FAIRY TWINS | 6.1% | 16.39 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | WINS ALL | 5.9% | 16.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | THE ABRAXAS | 4.4% | 22.95 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | STRATHCLYDE | 4.2% | 23.79 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | VIVA COUNCIL | 3.1% | 32.55 | 1 |
| 11 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 2.5% | 40.43 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | HARBOUR ALERT | 1.3% | 79.06 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 78
PLACE
2 33.5
5 38.5
8 24
QUINELLA
5,8 413.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 158.5
2,8 118.5
5,8 137.5
TIERCE
8,5,2 6,715
TRIO
2,5,8 1,152
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 1,088
QUARTET
8,5,2,7 29,092
2ND DOUBLE
8/5 161.5
8/8 701.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 33
A1 —
A3 —