沙田 · 2020-02-19
第 4場
2020-02-19沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由C Schofield策騎、K L Man訓練的SUPER POWER MAN勝出，贏出1-1/4。ZERO HEDGE獲得亞軍；DREAM WARRIORS獲得季軍。2.7倍大熱門PARTY GENIUS跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SUPER POWER MAN 1.09.20 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 12 | 24.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE PC/XB J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 5.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | LADY FIRST XB2/TT G van Niekerk · K H Ting | G van Niekerk | K H Ting | 5 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | COOLCELEB B/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 2 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY B1/TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 11 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | PARTY GENIUS XB1 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 8 | 2.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SO WE JOY TT1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 7 | 137.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SKY TREASURE H M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 7.8 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | ISLAND WINNER CP-/XB/P1/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | GOLDEN EFFORT B M F Poon · D E Ferraris | M F Poon | D E Ferraris | 1 | 40.0 | 18 |
| 12 | 3 | UNDEFEATED B H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 10 | 6.8 | 31-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LADY FIRST | 19.7% | 5.08 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | ZERO HEDGE | 16.3% | 6.13 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | UNDEFEATED | 16.1% | 6.22 | 12 |
| 4 | 12 | ISLAND WINNER | 11.0% | 9.10 | 10 |
| 5 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY | 10.0% | 9.99 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | PARTY GENIUS | 7.2% | 13.88 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | DREAM WARRIORS | 6.1% | 16.43 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | SUPER POWER MAN | 3.6% | 27.75 | 1 |
| 9 | 7 | SO WE JOY | 3.5% | 28.79 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | SKY TREASURE | 3.3% | 29.94 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | GOLDEN EFFORT | 1.8% | 54.61 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | COOLCELEB | 1.4% | 72.69 | 5 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 243.5
PLACE
2 56.5
4 17.5
8 52
QUINELLA
4,8 633.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 138
2,8 683
4,8 187
TIERCE
8,4,2 22,139
TRIO
2,4,8 3,580
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 5,521
QUARTET
8,4,2,1 165,012
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,8/2,4,8 709,094
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 30.5
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
8/4 72.5
8/8 1,979