Sha Tin · 2020-02-19
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HIDDEN SPIRIT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by HD, with KA YING BRILLIANCE second and SUPER RED DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SUPER RED DRAGON finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 9.5 | HD |
| 2 | 4 | KA YING BRILLIANCE Closed strongly P/H2/XB2 T Piccone · T P Yung | T Piccone | T P Yung | 2 | 4.9 | HD |
| 3 | 2 | SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/H/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HAY RUN Closed strongly H-/TT- K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 6 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 14 | ROCKAGE B/H/XB/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 13 | 34.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | SKY GEM Closed strongly P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 8 | 165.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | KEEP WINNING TT C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | WINNING WARRIOR Led early H-/V1 B Shinn · K L Man | B Shinn | K L Man | 5 | 83.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | WINNING CIRCLE B-/H-/PC2/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 9 | 13.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | OUR GREEN B K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 10 | 17.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | MI BLANCO B/TT J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 6.1 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 13 | SOLAR BILLION B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 14 | 58.0 | 17 |
| — | 0 | SUNNY MAJOR H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | MASTER BERNINI C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 15.4% | 6.48 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | MI BLANCO | 14.8% | 6.78 | 13 |
| 3 | 9 | KEEP WINNING | 13.2% | 7.57 | 9 |
| 4 | 4 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 12.5% | 7.98 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | SKY GEM | 10.0% | 10.00 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 5.9% | 16.88 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 5.7% | 17.61 | 1 |
| 8 | 13 | SOLAR BILLION | 4.7% | 21.24 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | HAY RUN | 4.1% | 24.62 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | WINNING CIRCLE | 3.8% | 26.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 14 | ROCKAGE | 3.8% | 26.49 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | OUR GREEN | 3.7% | 26.67 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | GREAT SMART | 1.3% | 79.23 | 8 |
| 14 | 7 | WINNING WARRIOR | 1.1% | 91.68 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 95
PLACE
2 16
4 22.5
8 27.5
QUINELLA
4,8 219.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 57.5
2,8 78.5
4,8 97
TIERCE
8,4,2 2,623
TRIO
2,4,8 363
FIRST 4
1,2,4,8 1,716
QUARTET
8,4,2,1 43,636
1ST DOUBLE
1/4 37
1/8 450.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 26