Sha Tin · 2020-02-19
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BIG TIME BABY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with GUNNISON second and ENCORE BOY third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BIG TIME BABY 1.07.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 6 | 3.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | GUNNISON J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 4.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | ENCORE BOY B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 12 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MOMENT OF POWER B K H Chan · P O'Sullivan | K H Chan | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 80.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | ELITE PATCH B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPERICH SR/TT M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 7 | 29.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | MR CROISSANT CP M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 1 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz | C Schofield | A S Cruz | 2 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | UGLY WARRIOR B- G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 8 | 6.7 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | FORTUNE BOOTH CP-/PC2 A Badel · J Moore | A Badel | J Moore | 11 | 11.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MR SO AND SO TT H W Lai · C W Chang | H W Lai | C W Chang | 10 | 191.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | HIGH FIVE H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 9 | 84.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MR CROISSANT | 27.6% | 3.62 | 7 |
| 2 | 12 | ELITE PATCH | 19.2% | 5.20 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | GUNNISON | 11.0% | 9.09 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | BIG TIME BABY | 8.3% | 12.05 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | ENCORE BOY | 6.9% | 14.41 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | UGLY WARRIOR | 6.8% | 14.79 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | FORTUNE BOOTH | 5.5% | 18.26 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPERICH | 4.5% | 22.06 | 6 |
| 9 | 4 | MOMENT OF POWER | 3.9% | 25.47 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | CALIFORNIA WHIP | 3.1% | 31.85 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | HIGH FIVE | 1.6% | 64.30 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | MR SO AND SO | 1.5% | 66.65 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 32
PLACE
1 14
5 17
7 35.5
QUINELLA
1,5 76.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 31.5
1,7 63
5,7 96.5
TIERCE
1,5,7 920
TRIO
1,5,7 247
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 2,020
QUARTET
1,5,7,4 19,683
3 PICK 1
A1 18.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,9/1,5,7 9,353
7TH DOUBLE
9/1 91
9/5 17.5
SIX UP
5,8/4,8/6,9/1,8/6,9/1,5 1,026
8/8/9/1/9/1 378,201
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
1/9/1 378
1/9/5 55