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Sha Tin · 2020-02-19

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-02-19 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. STRIKING MR C, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 3-1/2, with TRIUMPHANT LORD second and HAPPY HAPPY STAR third. The 4.6 favourite HAPPY HAPPY STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 STRIKING MR C B/TT 1.09.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 6 5.0 3-1/2
2 11 TRIUMPHANT LORD TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 9.1 3-1/2
3 3 HAPPY HAPPY STAR B J Moreira · K H Ting 10 4.6 4-1/4
4 6 CORRE RAPIDO B M F Poon · R Gibson 1 19.0 5
5 10 EXPONENTS V-/CP1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 10.0 5-1/4
6 2 PLEASANT GUY G van Niekerk · L Ho 3 5.6 5-3/4
7 5 ROYAL CHOCOLATE B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 5 10.0 5-3/4
8 9 WINNERS BROTHER B K H Chan · K L Man 9 95.0 6-1/2
9 4 VICTORY SONG B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 48.0 6-3/4
10 12 NASHASHUK P/TT A Badel · J Size 11 15.0 7
11 8 TARGET FINDER H-/XB- M L Yeung · C W Chang 8 56.0 7-1/4
12 7 SUPER FUN H N Callan · C H Yip 2 6.3 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STRIKING MR C2. TRIUMPHANT LORD+3.5L3. HAPPY HAPPY STAR+4.25L4. CORRE RAPIDO+5L5. EXPONENTS+5.25L6. PLEASANT GUY+5.75L7. ROYAL CHOCOLATE+5.75L8. WINNERS BROTHER+6.5L9. VICTORY SONG+6.75L10. NASHASHUK+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ROYAL CHOCOLATE (20.9%) finished 7th — the winner STRIKING MR C was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ROYAL CHOCOLATE 20.9% 4.79 7
2 3 HAPPY HAPPY STAR 13.3% 7.53 3
3 10 EXPONENTS 11.8% 8.47 5
4 2 PLEASANT GUY 11.4% 8.77 6
5 1 STRIKING MR C 9.3% 10.77 1
6 6 CORRE RAPIDO 7.8% 12.77 4
7 12 NASHASHUK 7.1% 14.00 10
8 7 SUPER FUN 6.8% 14.70 12
9 11 TRIUMPHANT LORD 6.7% 15.00 2
10 8 TARGET FINDER 2.2% 46.14 11
11 4 VICTORY SONG 1.4% 72.04 9
12 9 WINNERS BROTHER 1.4% 72.94 8
ROYAL CHOCOLATEHAPPY HAPPY STAREXPONENTSPLEASANT GUYSTRIKING MR C — wonCORRE RAPIDONASHASHUKSUPER FUNTRIUMPHANT LORDTARGET FINDERVICTORY SONGWINNERS BROTHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 50

PLACE

1 20

3 19.5

11 26

QUINELLA

1,11 262

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 56.5

1,11 97

3,11 75.5

TIERCE

1,11,3 2,992

TRIO

1,3,11 413

FIRST 4

1,3,6,11 1,575

QUARTET

1,11,3,6 30,524

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 24

A2