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Sha Tin · 2020-04-01

Race 1

Class 5 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. GENERAL TRUMP, ridden by K Teetan and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with FAIRY FLOSS second and FOX CHEUNGER third. The 4.6 favourite AURORA STEED finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.10.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GENERAL TRUMP TT 1.10.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · T P Yung 11 8.7 1/2
2 10 FAIRY FLOSS B/H M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 5.8 1/2
3 9 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT M Chadwick · K W Lui 12 17.0 2
4 1 ABSOLUCOOL H-/P-/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 6.0 2-1/4
5 7 GREAT SON B/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 5 8.5 2-1/4
6 12 FORTUNE WAY TT V Borges · D E Ferraris 2 124.0 2-1/2
7 11 EXPONENTS CP-/SR1/V2 G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 6 9.0 2-1/2
8 6 JUNZI CP1 H W Lai · W Y So 1 46.0 4-1/4
9 4 AURORA STEED B J Moreira · J Size 8 4.6 4-1/2
10 5 GRAND HARBOUR H-/B2/TT H N Wong · C W Chang 10 9.0 5-1/4
11 2 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN H- K C Leung · L Ho 9 17.0 8-1/2
12 8 CORRE RAPIDO B C Wong · R Gibson 7 16.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GENERAL TRUMP2. FAIRY FLOSS+0.5L3. FOX CHEUNGER+2L4. ABSOLUCOOL+2.25L5. GREAT SON+2.25L6. FORTUNE WAY+2.5L7. EXPONENTS+2.5L8. JUNZI+4.25L9. AURORA STEED+4.5L10. GRAND HARBOUR+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AURORA STEED (30.6%) finished 9th — the winner GENERAL TRUMP was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 AURORA STEED 30.6% 3.27 9
2 3 GENERAL TRUMP 14.2% 7.05 1
3 7 GREAT SON 12.4% 8.05 5
4 9 FOX CHEUNGER 10.2% 9.80 3
5 11 EXPONENTS 8.8% 11.41 7
6 1 ABSOLUCOOL 6.2% 16.15 4
7 8 CORRE RAPIDO 5.6% 17.96 12
8 10 FAIRY FLOSS 4.0% 24.76 2
9 5 GRAND HARBOUR 3.0% 33.46 10
10 2 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 2.4% 42.31 11
11 6 JUNZI 1.5% 67.95 8
12 12 FORTUNE WAY 1.2% 81.21 6
AURORA STEEDGENERAL TRUMP — wonGREAT SONFOX CHEUNGEREXPONENTSABSOLUCOOLCORRE RAPIDOFAIRY FLOSSGRAND HARBOURCHUNGHWA JINGSHENJUNZIFORTUNE WAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 87.5

PLACE

3 27.5

9 49.5

10 21

QUINELLA

3,10 390

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 186

3,10 134

9,10 250.5

TIERCE

3,10,9 11,937

TRIO

3,9,10 1,967

FIRST 4

1,3,9,10 3,161

QUARTET

3,10,9,1 91,919

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 20.5

A1