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Sha Tin · 2020-04-01

Race 5

Class 4 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. RIGHTEOUS MATE, ridden by V Borges and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER RED DRAGON second and STAR MAJESTIC third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SUPER RED DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 RIGHTEOUS MATE Closed strongly 1.39.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · A T Millard 9 93.0 1-1/4
2 14 SUPER RED DRAGON Closed strongly B/H/TT K Teetan · W Y So 2 3.0 1-1/4
3 4 STAR MAJESTIC Closed strongly B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 12 70.0 1-1/2
4 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 3.9 1-3/4
5 1 JADE FORTUNE Closed strongly B Z Purton · K L Man 14 7.4 2-1/2
6 5 LASTING FRIENDSHIP P G van Niekerk · L Ho 3 15.0 2-1/2
7 2 SMILING CITY P M Chadwick · D J Whyte 10 30.0 2-3/4
8 3 KING'S RACE Led early B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting 7 7.2 3
9 9 STARLIT KNIGHT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 1 48.0 3-1/2
10 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M L Yeung · F C Lor 5 15.0 5-1/4
11 10 LIGHTNING STEED TT C Wong · C Fownes 13 10.0 7
12 7 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 22.0 17-1/4
13 8 SMART THINKER B/XB H W Lai · R Gibson 8 410.0 18
14 13 HAPPY HOUR E/P2/TT T H So · C H Yip 4 181.0 23-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS MATE2. SUPER RED DRAGON+1.25L3. STAR MAJESTIC+1.5L4. THIS ONE'S FOR YOU+1.75L5. JADE FORTUNE+2.5L6. LASTING FRIENDSHIP+2.5L7. SMILING CITY+2.75L8. KING'S RACE+3L9. STARLIT KNIGHT+3.5L10. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SUPER RED DRAGON (21.8%) finished 2nd — the winner RIGHTEOUS MATE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 SUPER RED DRAGON 21.8% 4.58 2
2 6 THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 14.8% 6.78 4
3 3 KING'S RACE 12.1% 8.28 8
4 7 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 11.8% 8.47 12
5 1 JADE FORTUNE 8.1% 12.29 5
6 10 LIGHTNING STEED 6.3% 15.88 11
7 5 LASTING FRIENDSHIP 5.1% 19.44 6
8 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 5.0% 19.87 10
9 2 SMILING CITY 4.6% 21.93 7
10 12 RIGHTEOUS MATE 3.1% 32.75 1
11 4 STAR MAJESTIC 2.8% 36.31 3
12 13 HAPPY HOUR 2.1% 48.09 14
13 9 STARLIT KNIGHT 2.0% 49.54 9
14 8 SMART THINKER 0.5% 221.04 13
SUPER RED DRAGONTHIS ONE'S FOR YOUKING'S RACECALIFORNIA LEGENDJADE FORTUNELIGHTNING STEEDLASTING FRIENDSHIPALL FOR ST PAUL'SSMILING CITYRIGHTEOUS MATE — wonSTAR MAJESTICHAPPY HOURSTARLIT KNIGHTSMART THINKER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 935

PLACE

4 115

12 157.5

14 13.5

QUINELLA

12,14 1,173

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 2,144.5

4,14 274

12,14 321.5

TIERCE

12,14,4 104,406

TRIO

4,12,14 11,758

FIRST 4

4,6,12,14 4,155

QUARTET

12,14,4,6 186,608

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 31.5

A1

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

2/12 6,107

2/14 57