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Sha Tin · 2020-04-01

Race 2

Class 4 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. THOU SHALL SING, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with HANDSOME REBEL second and GOLDEN MISSION third. The 3.8 favourite HANDSOME REBEL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 THOU SHALL SING B 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 5.0 N
2 1 HANDSOME REBEL B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 3.8 N
3 10 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT G van Niekerk · R Gibson 1 8.9 2-1/2
4 6 KA FORTUNE V1/XB2 M F Poon · L Ho 3 9.0 3-1/2
5 9 LITTLE THUNDER B C Wong · A T Millard 12 6.8 3-3/4
6 2 GRACIOUS RYDER B M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 12.0 4
7 11 HAPPY WINNER H K Teetan · C W Chang 2 52.0 4-1/2
8 12 GOUTEN OF GARO B-/TT H N Wong · D E Ferraris 6 80.0 5-3/4
9 7 SPLENDID TIMING B T H So · C H Yip 10 51.0 6
10 5 SHIMMER AND SHINE CP N Callan · C Fownes 7 5.2 10-1/4
11 4 GOOD LUCK MONEY XB1 B Shinn · P F Yiu 11 17.0 15-1/4
12 3 NOBLE CONSORT B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum 9 132.0 24-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THOU SHALL SING2. HANDSOME REBEL+0.05L3. GOLDEN MISSION+2.5L4. KA FORTUNE+3.5L5. LITTLE THUNDER+3.75L6. GRACIOUS RYDER+4L7. HAPPY WINNER+4.5L8. GOUTEN OF GARO+5.75L9. SPLENDID TIMING+6L10. SHIMMER AND SHINE+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOLDEN MISSION (25.7%) finished 3rd — the winner THOU SHALL SING was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GOLDEN MISSION 25.7% 3.89 3
2 6 KA FORTUNE 12.1% 8.23 4
3 1 HANDSOME REBEL 12.0% 8.31 2
4 5 SHIMMER AND SHINE 10.7% 9.34 10
5 2 GRACIOUS RYDER 10.1% 9.91 6
6 9 LITTLE THUNDER 8.8% 11.30 5
7 8 THOU SHALL SING 8.1% 12.34 1
8 12 GOUTEN OF GARO 3.5% 28.23 8
9 4 GOOD LUCK MONEY 2.7% 36.56 11
10 7 SPLENDID TIMING 2.3% 43.60 9
11 3 NOBLE CONSORT 2.1% 46.72 12
12 11 HAPPY WINNER 1.7% 60.58 7
GOLDEN MISSIONKA FORTUNEHANDSOME REBELSHIMMER AND SHINEGRACIOUS RYDERLITTLE THUNDERTHOU SHALL SING — wonGOUTEN OF GAROGOOD LUCK MONEYSPLENDID TIMINGNOBLE CONSORTHAPPY WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 50

PLACE

1 16.5

8 16.5

10 24

QUINELLA

1,8 100.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 40

1,10 62.5

8,10 68

TIERCE

8,1,10 1,616

TRIO

1,8,10 276

FIRST 4

1,6,8,10 827

QUARTET

8,1,10,6 19,969

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 84

3/8 1,725

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 25.5