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Sha Tin · 2020-04-01

Race 6

Class 3 WET SLOW 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. UTOPIA LIFE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by 3, with JUST NOT LISTENING second and LITTLE BIRD third. The 3.2 favourite FLYING GENIUS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.08.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 UTOPIA LIFE B 1.08.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man 8 5.2 3
2 9 JUST NOT LISTENING V J Moreira · J Moore 1 3.8 3
3 1 LITTLE BIRD V/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 39.0 5-1/2
4 10 NAMJONG SINGS B G van Niekerk · C S Shum 4 5.7 5-3/4
5 8 FLYING GENIUS TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 3.2 8
6 5 HIGHLAND FORTUNE C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 12.0 8-1/4
7 3 MEGA HEART XB/TT N Callan · C W Chang 12 13.0 8-3/4
8 12 THE WEATHERMAN P2 H N Wong · D J Whyte 5 103.0 9-3/4
9 4 WIND N GRASS TT1 M Chadwick · J Size 10 21.0 10-1/4
10 7 PACKING JOY B-/SR-/TT- T H So · R Gibson 6 373.0 13-1/4
11 2 PATCH BABY H/XB/B2/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 32.0 13-1/2
12 6 KING'S HORN B M F Poon · L Ho 9 225.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UTOPIA LIFE2. JUST NOT LISTENING+3L3. LITTLE BIRD+5.5L4. NAMJONG SINGS+5.75L5. FLYING GENIUS+8L6. HIGHLAND FORTUNE+8.25L7. MEGA HEART+8.75L8. THE WEATHERMAN+9.75L9. WIND N GRASS+10.25L10. PACKING JOY+13.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JUST NOT LISTENING (33.5%) finished 2nd — the winner UTOPIA LIFE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 JUST NOT LISTENING 33.5% 2.99 2
2 8 FLYING GENIUS 24.4% 4.10 5
3 10 NAMJONG SINGS 11.6% 8.65 4
4 4 WIND N GRASS 8.3% 11.99 9
5 11 UTOPIA LIFE 7.4% 13.50 1
6 5 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 4.3% 23.51 6
7 3 MEGA HEART 3.6% 28.04 7
8 1 LITTLE BIRD 3.3% 30.66 3
9 2 PATCH BABY 1.4% 70.75 11
10 12 THE WEATHERMAN 1.1% 90.02 8
11 6 KING'S HORN 0.8% 128.02 12
12 7 PACKING JOY 0.4% 235.26 10
JUST NOT LISTENINGFLYING GENIUSNAMJONG SINGSWIND N GRASSUTOPIA LIFE — wonHIGHLAND FORTUNEMEGA HEARTLITTLE BIRDPATCH BABYTHE WEATHERMANKING'S HORNPACKING JOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 52

PLACE

1 114.5

9 15

11 19

QUINELLA

9,11 98.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 295

1,11 445.5

9,11 37.5

TIERCE

11,9,1 11,749

TRIO

1,9,11 1,602

FIRST 4

1,9,10,11 1,444

QUARTET

11,9,1,10 30,705

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,12,14/1,9,11 1,301,737

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 22.5

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

12/9 830

12/11 6,921

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,7,9/Any Combination/Any Combination 120