Sha Tin · 2020-04-01
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on WET SLOW going. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C W Chang, won by 2-1/4, with OWNERS' STAR second and CLASSIC BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB 1.47.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 1 | 2.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 6 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | CLASSIC BEAUTY B C Wong · J Moore | C Wong | J Moore | 10 | 58.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly XB M F Poon · D E Ferraris | M F Poon | D E Ferraris | 11 | 98.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | GOD OF DRAGON Led early H/XB1/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 2 | 32.0 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | FOLLOW ME TT N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 5 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 36.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | RACING LUCK Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 14 | 37.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | ENFOLDING Closed strongly V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 8 | 9.8 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | VOLPINO Closed strongly H/XB/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 13 | 35.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE B-/SR-/P1 C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 3 | 5.9 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | TOTAL POWER K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 9 | 84.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | RED ELYSEES B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 7 | 9.3 | 22-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 4 | 53.0 | 34-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 43.9% | 2.28 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | RED ELYSEES | 8.7% | 11.52 | 13 |
| 3 | 7 | MORE THAN A HORSE | 8.5% | 11.76 | 11 |
| 4 | 11 | OWNERS' STAR | 6.1% | 16.36 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | GOD OF DRAGON | 5.7% | 17.47 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | ENFOLDING | 5.0% | 20.07 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | RACING LUCK | 4.2% | 23.71 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | FOLLOW ME | 3.9% | 25.44 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | ACCLAIMED LIGHT | 3.3% | 30.33 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | CLASSIC BEAUTY | 3.0% | 33.55 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | TOTAL POWER | 2.5% | 40.32 | 12 |
| 12 | 5 | VOLPINO | 2.4% | 41.33 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | UNITE SPIRIT | 1.5% | 66.34 | 4 |
| 14 | 12 | MONGOLIAN LEGEND | 1.3% | 77.51 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 21
PLACE
1 107.5
4 12.5
11 29
QUINELLA
4,11 103.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 231
1,11 903
4,11 48.5
TIERCE
4,11,1 5,886
TRIO
1,4,11 1,928
FIRST 4
1,4,11,14 21,261
QUARTET
4,11,1,14 192,501
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
11/4 196
11/11 83.5