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Sha Tin · 2020-04-01

Race 3

Class 5 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-01 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. HIDDEN SPIRIT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with KA YING BRILLIANCE second and HAY RUN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite KA YING BRILLIANCE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 HIDDEN SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan 2 5.1 N
2 3 KA YING BRILLIANCE Closed strongly H/P/XB J Moreira · T P Yung 3 3.0 N
3 6 HAY RUN Closed strongly K C Leung · L Ho 6 12.0 1-1/4
4 9 RED BRICK FIGHTER Led early B B Shinn · D J Hall 14 9.6 1-1/4
5 13 CHARITYDREAM CP/TT K Teetan · W Y So 5 41.0 1-3/4
6 12 WINNERS BROTHER Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K L Man 9 35.0 2-3/4
7 8 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C W Chang 7 27.0 3
8 10 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 23.0 5
9 11 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P G van Niekerk · J Size 1 6.5 5-1/4
10 2 GOOD FIT Closed strongly PC/TT H N Wong · F C Lor 4 29.0 6-3/4
11 4 CURLING LUXURY Z Purton · Y S Tsui 11 6.8 9-1/4
12 5 CHAPARRAL STAR V1/TT- C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 42.0 15-1/4
13 1 BLINK OF A SECOND Closed strongly H-/B1/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 13 275.0 22-3/4
14 14 SUN FOXHUNTER B/H1 V Borges · K W Lui 8 125.0 40-1/4
— 0 MASTER BERNINI V Borges · A T Millard — — —

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIDDEN SPIRIT—2. KA YING BRILLIANCE+0.05L3. HAY RUN+1.25L4. RED BRICK FIGHTER+1.25L5. CHARITYDREAM+1.75L6. WINNERS BROTHER+2.75L7. KEEP WINNING+3L8. THE FULL BLOOM+5L9. MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE+5.25L10. GOOD FIT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick KA YING BRILLIANCE (26.8%) finished 2nd — the winner HIDDEN SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 KA YING BRILLIANCE 26.8% 3.74 2
2 7 HIDDEN SPIRIT 16.9% 5.92 1
3 4 CURLING LUXURY 10.4% 9.61 11
4 9 RED BRICK FIGHTER 8.5% 11.81 4
5 11 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 6.8% 14.60 9
6 8 KEEP WINNING 5.7% 17.50 7
7 6 HAY RUN 5.1% 19.50 3
8 5 CHAPARRAL STAR 4.1% 24.55 12
9 10 THE FULL BLOOM 4.0% 24.87 8
10 13 CHARITYDREAM 4.0% 25.28 5
11 12 WINNERS BROTHER 3.4% 29.44 6
12 2 GOOD FIT 2.1% 46.84 10
13 14 SUN FOXHUNTER 1.3% 79.38 14
14 1 BLINK OF A SECOND 0.9% 105.54 13
KA YING BRILLIANCEHIDDEN SPIRIT — wonCURLING LUXURYRED BRICK FIGHTERMISCHIEVOUS SUNDAEKEEP WINNINGHAY RUNCHAPARRAL STARTHE FULL BLOOMCHARITYDREAMWINNERS BROTHERGOOD FITSUN FOXHUNTERBLINK OF A SECOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 51

PLACE

3 15

6 32

7 23.5

QUINELLA

3,7 104

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 78.5

3,7 39.5

6,7 118

TIERCE

7,3,6 1,487

TRIO

3,6,7 260

FIRST 4

3,6,7,9 680

QUARTET

7,3,6,9 16,022

2ND DOUBLE

8/3 44

8/7 563

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 33.5

A1 —

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