沙田 · 2020-04-01
第 3場
2020-04-01沙田第3場，Class 5，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由N Callan策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的HIDDEN SPIRIT勝出，贏出N。KA YING BRILLIANCE獲得亞軍；HAY RUN獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.0倍大熱門KA YING BRILLIANCE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HIDDEN SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT 1.39.68 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 5.1 | N |
| 2 | 3 | KA YING BRILLIANCE 後段發力 H/P/XB J Moreira · T P Yung | J Moreira | T P Yung | 3 | 3.0 | N |
| 3 | 6 | HAY RUN 後段發力 K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 6 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER 早段領放 B B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 14 | 9.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | CHARITYDREAM CP/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 5 | 41.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNERS BROTHER 後段發力 B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 9 | 35.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | KEEP WINNING 後段發力 TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 7 | 27.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | THE FULL BLOOM 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 10 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE P G van Niekerk · J Size | G van Niekerk | J Size | 1 | 6.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | GOOD FIT 後段發力 PC/TT H N Wong · F C Lor | H N Wong | F C Lor | 4 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | CURLING LUXURY Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 11 | 6.8 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | CHAPARRAL STAR V1/TT- C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 12 | 42.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 13 | 1 | BLINK OF A SECOND 後段發力 H-/B1/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 13 | 275.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 14 | 14 | SUN FOXHUNTER B/H1 V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 8 | 125.0 | 40-1/4 |
| — | 0 | MASTER BERNINI V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | KA YING BRILLIANCE | 26.8% | 3.74 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | HIDDEN SPIRIT | 16.9% | 5.92 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | CURLING LUXURY | 10.4% | 9.61 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 8.5% | 11.81 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE | 6.8% | 14.60 | 9 |
| 6 | 8 | KEEP WINNING | 5.7% | 17.50 | 7 |
| 7 | 6 | HAY RUN | 5.1% | 19.50 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | CHAPARRAL STAR | 4.1% | 24.55 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | THE FULL BLOOM | 4.0% | 24.87 | 8 |
| 10 | 13 | CHARITYDREAM | 4.0% | 25.28 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | WINNERS BROTHER | 3.4% | 29.44 | 6 |
| 12 | 2 | GOOD FIT | 2.1% | 46.84 | 10 |
| 13 | 14 | SUN FOXHUNTER | 1.3% | 79.38 | 14 |
| 14 | 1 | BLINK OF A SECOND | 0.9% | 105.54 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 51
PLACE
3 15
6 32
7 23.5
QUINELLA
3,7 104
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 78.5
3,7 39.5
6,7 118
TIERCE
7,3,6 1,487
TRIO
3,6,7 260
FIRST 4
3,6,7,9 680
QUARTET
7,3,6,9 16,022
2ND DOUBLE
8/3 44
8/7 563
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 33.5
A1 —