沙田 · 2020-04-01
第 5場
2020-04-01沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1650米，跑道評為WET SLOW。由V Borges策騎、A T Millard訓練的RIGHTEOUS MATE勝出，贏出1-1/4。SUPER RED DRAGON獲得亞軍；STAR MAJESTIC獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.0倍大熱門SUPER RED DRAGON跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS MATE 後段發力 1.39.39 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 9 | 93.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 14 | SUPER RED DRAGON 後段發力 B/H/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 3.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | STAR MAJESTIC 後段發力 B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 70.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU 後段發力 B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 3.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | JADE FORTUNE 後段發力 B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 14 | 7.4 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP P G van Niekerk · L Ho | G van Niekerk | L Ho | 3 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | SMILING CITY P M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 10 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | KING'S RACE 早段領放 B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 7 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | STARLIT KNIGHT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 48.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 5 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 13 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 11 | 22.0 | 17-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | SMART THINKER B/XB H W Lai · R Gibson | H W Lai | R Gibson | 8 | 410.0 | 18 |
| 14 | 13 | HAPPY HOUR E/P2/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 4 | 181.0 | 23-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 21.8% | 4.58 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | THIS ONE'S FOR YOU | 14.8% | 6.78 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | KING'S RACE | 12.1% | 8.28 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | CALIFORNIA LEGEND | 11.8% | 8.47 | 12 |
| 5 | 1 | JADE FORTUNE | 8.1% | 12.29 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED | 6.3% | 15.88 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | LASTING FRIENDSHIP | 5.1% | 19.44 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 5.0% | 19.87 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | SMILING CITY | 4.6% | 21.93 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS MATE | 3.1% | 32.75 | 1 |
| 11 | 4 | STAR MAJESTIC | 2.8% | 36.31 | 3 |
| 12 | 13 | HAPPY HOUR | 2.1% | 48.09 | 14 |
| 13 | 9 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 2.0% | 49.54 | 9 |
| 14 | 8 | SMART THINKER | 0.5% | 221.04 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 935
PLACE
4 115
12 157.5
14 13.5
QUINELLA
12,14 1,173
QUINELLA PLACE
4,12 2,144.5
4,14 274
12,14 321.5
TIERCE
12,14,4 104,406
TRIO
4,12,14 11,758
FIRST 4
4,6,12,14 4,155
QUARTET
12,14,4,6 186,608
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 31.5
A1 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
2/12 6,107
2/14 57