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Sha Tin · 2020-04-05

Race 3

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-05 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GENERATION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with KA YING STAR second and SOUTHERN LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite WAIKUKU finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.33.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BEAUTY GENERATION Closed strongly CP/TT 1.33.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore 6 2.5 1/2
2 3 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 3 10.0 1/2
3 4 SOUTHERN LEGEND TT1 G van Niekerk · C Fownes 5 22.0 1/2
4 5 FURORE Closed strongly B/TT1 B Shinn · A S Cruz 4 26.0 1-3/4
5 7 FLYING THUNDER XB K Teetan · F C Lor 2 62.0 4-1/2
6 2 WAIKUKU J Moreira · J Size 1 1.7 4-3/4
7 6 FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 36.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY GENERATION—2. KA YING STAR+0.5L3. SOUTHERN LEGEND+0.5L4. FURORE+1.75L5. FLYING THUNDER+4.5L6. WAIKUKU+4.75L7. FAT TURTLE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WAIKUKU (41.5%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY GENERATION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WAIKUKU 41.5% 2.41 6
2 1 BEAUTY GENERATION 31.6% 3.17 1
3 3 KA YING STAR 15.1% 6.61 2
4 6 FAT TURTLE 4.6% 21.56 7
5 4 SOUTHERN LEGEND 3.0% 33.19 3
6 7 FLYING THUNDER 2.7% 37.05 5
7 5 FURORE 1.5% 68.89 4
WAIKUKUBEAUTY GENERATION — wonKA YING STARFAT TURTLESOUTHERN LEGENDFLYING THUNDERFURORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25.5

PLACE

1 10.1

3 17.5

4 32.5

QUINELLA

1,3 82.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 24

1,4 42

3,4 106.5

TIERCE

1,3,4 724

TRIO

1,3,4 199

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 514

QUARTET

1,3,4,5 5,319

2ND DOUBLE

3/1 95

3/3 76.5

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A1 —

A3 —

WINNING TRAINER

B2 —

B4 23

B1 —

B3 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99