Sha Tin · 2020-04-05

Race 3

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.33.49

Pos	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	BEAUTY GENERATION Closed strongly CP/TT 1.33.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	6	128 lb	2.5	1/2
2	KA YING STAR Led early V/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz	C Schofield	A S Cruz	3	123 lb	10.0	1/2
3	SOUTHERN LEGEND TT1 G van Niekerk · C Fownes	G van Niekerk	C Fownes	5	123 lb	22.0	1/2
4	FURORE Closed strongly B/TT1 B Shinn · A S Cruz	B Shinn	A S Cruz	4	123 lb	26.0	1-3/4
5	FLYING THUNDER XB K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	2	123 lb	62.0	4-1/2
6	WAIKUKU J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	1	128 lb	1.7	4-3/4
7	FAT TURTLE B C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	7	123 lb	36.0	6-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-05 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GENERATION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with KA YING STAR second and SOUTHERN LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.7 favourite WAIKUKU finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick WAIKUKU (41.5%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY GENERATION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	WAIKUKU	41.5%	2.41	6	1.7
2	BEAUTY GENERATION	31.6%	3.17	1	2.5
3	KA YING STAR	15.1%	6.61	2	10.0
4	FAT TURTLE	4.6%	21.56	7	36.0
5	SOUTHERN LEGEND	3.0%	33.19	3	22.0
6	FLYING THUNDER	2.7%	37.05	5	62.0
7	FURORE	1.5%	68.89	4	26.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25.5

PLACE

1 10.1

3 17.5

4 32.5

QUINELLA

1,3 82.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 24

1,4 42

3,4 106.5

TIERCE

1,3,4 724

TRIO

1,3,4 199

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 514

QUARTET

1,3,4,5 5,319

2ND DOUBLE

3/1 95

3/3 76.5

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 20.5

A3 —

WINNING TRAINER

B1 —

B2 —

B4 23

B3 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data