Sha Tin · 2020-04-05

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 8 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-05 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VOYAGE WARRIOR, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with HOT KING PRAWN second and THANKS FOREVER third. The 1.8 favourite AETHERO finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.48

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	7	VOYAGE WARRIOR 1.09.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu	C Y Ho	P F Yiu	3	123 lb	24.0	3/4
2	1	HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	1	123 lb	2.6	3/4
3	2	THANKS FOREVER CP B Shinn · J Moore	B Shinn	J Moore	7	123 lb	8.7	1-1/4
4	3	MR STUNNING CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	4	123 lb	19.0	2
5	6	BIG PARTY K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	2	123 lb	28.0	2
6	5	D B PIN G van Niekerk · J Size	G van Niekerk	J Size	8	123 lb	39.0	2-1/2
7	4	FULL OF BEAUTY C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	6	123 lb	46.0	4-1/4
8	8	AETHERO Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	5	119 lb	1.8	9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick AETHERO (39.3%) finished 8th — the winner VOYAGE WARRIOR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	AETHERO	39.3%	2.55	8	1.8
2	1	HOT KING PRAWN	28.8%	3.47	2	2.6
3	6	BIG PARTY	6.6%	15.26	5	28.0
4	4	FULL OF BEAUTY	6.4%	15.58	7	46.0
5	7	VOYAGE WARRIOR	5.6%	17.95	1	24.0
6	5	D B PIN	5.4%	18.51	6	39.0
7	3	MR STUNNING	5.0%	19.95	4	19.0
8	2	THANKS FOREVER	3.0%	33.71	3	8.7

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 241.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 17.5

7 42

QUINELLA

1,7 288

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 26.5

1,7 61.5

2,7 179

TIERCE

7,1,2 3,630

TRIO

1,2,7 454

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 505

QUARTET

7,1,2,3 24,165

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,12/1,2,7 46,481

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 81

A1 —

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

5/1 15.5

5/7 1,128.5

WINNING TRAINER

B4 241.5

B3 —

B2 —

B1 —

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