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Sha Tin · 2020-04-05

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING LEGEND, ridden by V Borges and trained by T P Yung, won by 3-3/4, with ELIGERE second and STAR LUCK third. The 1.6 favourite PING HAI BRAVO finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 KA YING LEGEND TT 1.09.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · T P Yung 1 7.2 3-3/4
2 9 ELIGERE B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 4 19.0 3-3/4
3 8 STAR LUCK K Teetan · F C Lor 10 8.2 6-1/2
4 12 NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson 2 14.0 7-3/4
5 1 LA YAKFI TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 236.0 9-1/4
6 4 PING HAI BRAVO J Moreira · J Size 7 1.6 9-1/2
7 6 BIG FORTUNE B/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte 11 6.9 12
8 11 MAGIC SUPREME XB-/TT K C Leung · J Moore 6 37.0 12-3/4
9 2 SACRED IBIS BO-/XB1 C Schofield · A T Millard 3 28.0 13
10 10 FIRST RESPONDER CP2/TT M L Yeung · J Moore 8 47.0 13-3/4
11 3 STAY CHILL H W Lai · W Y So 5 392.0 15-1/4
5 WISDOM PATCH B Shinn · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING LEGEND2. ELIGERE+3.75L3. STAR LUCK+6.5L4. NORDIC WARRIOR+7.75L5. LA YAKFI+9.25L6. PING HAI BRAVO+9.5L7. BIG FORTUNE+12L8. MAGIC SUPREME+12.75L9. SACRED IBIS+13L10. FIRST RESPONDER+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PING HAI BRAVO (55.7%) finished 6th — the winner KA YING LEGEND was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PING HAI BRAVO 55.7% 1.80 6
2 8 STAR LUCK 12.2% 8.19 3
3 7 KA YING LEGEND 9.3% 10.73 1
4 6 BIG FORTUNE 5.0% 20.11 7
5 11 MAGIC SUPREME 4.1% 24.59 8
6 2 SACRED IBIS 3.9% 25.60 9
7 12 NORDIC WARRIOR 3.7% 26.70 4
8 9 ELIGERE 3.3% 30.45 2
9 10 FIRST RESPONDER 1.6% 64.04 10
10 1 LA YAKFI 0.7% 136.19 5
11 3 STAY CHILL 0.5% 190.58 11
PING HAI BRAVOSTAR LUCKKA YING LEGEND — wonBIG FORTUNEMAGIC SUPREMESACRED IBISNORDIC WARRIORELIGEREFIRST RESPONDERLA YAKFISTAY CHILL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 72

PLACE

7 16

8 19.5

9 36.5

QUINELLA

7,9 650

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 55.5

7,9 143.5

8,9 124

TIERCE

7,9,8 4,957

TRIO

7,8,9 744

FIRST 4

7,8,9,12 1,037

QUARTET

7,9,8,12 22,369

3 PICK 1

A2 25

A3

A1

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/7 3,721.5

13/9 1,491.5