Sha Tin · 2020-04-05
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 1 | 1.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | LORIZ Led early CP-/TT- V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 4 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | CHAIRMAN LO Closed strongly B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 4.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | SMILING CITY Closed strongly P-/CP2/SR2 K H Chan · D J Whyte | K H Chan | D J Whyte | 13 | 15.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | CASIMIRO Closed strongly B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 7.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | MOTHER WISHES Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 12 | 49.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | DOUBLE TAKE Closed strongly N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 7 | 270.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIGHT Closed strongly G van Niekerk · C H Yip | G van Niekerk | C H Yip | 10 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | WITNESS HUNTER Closed strongly SR C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 8 | 9.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | FOREVER SHARP TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 2 | 206.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | BABY STORM H/TT M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 14 | 120.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | FLYING PHOTOS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 3 | 392.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 13 | 0 | RED ZOFFANY TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 344.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | FORTUNATE RUNNER CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 72.0 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 0 | ALLOY STAR K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-04-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KA YING EXCELLENT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with LORIZ second and CHAIRMAN LO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 25.9% | 3.86 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | CHAIRMAN LO | 21.5% | 4.64 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | LORIZ | 9.2% | 10.91 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | CASIMIRO | 8.4% | 11.92 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | WITNESS HUNTER | 7.8% | 12.79 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | SMILING CITY | 7.8% | 12.85 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | FORTUNATE RUNNER | 4.7% | 21.39 | 14 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIGHT | 4.4% | 22.69 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | BABY STORM | 3.8% | 25.98 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | MOTHER WISHES | 2.5% | 40.51 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | FOREVER SHARP | 1.5% | 66.01 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | RED ZOFFANY | 0.9% | 106.27 | 13 |
| 13 | 0 | DOUBLE TAKE | 0.9% | 108.72 | 7 |
| 14 | 0 | FLYING PHOTOS | 0.6% | 164.07 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 19
PLACE
2 15
4 32
5 12
QUINELLA
4,5 123.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 95
2,5 26.5
4,5 52.5
TIERCE
5,4,2 636
TRIO
2,4,5 154
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 418
QUARTET
5,4,2,1 5,290
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,4/2,4,5 6,542
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/4 58
1/5 75.5