Happy Valley · 2020-04-29
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY WARRIOR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 3/4, with FOCUS second and AMAZING LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HAPPY WARRIOR Closed strongly CP 1.40.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 1 | 3.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | FOCUS Led early K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 4 | 5.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B/SR2/TT2 N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 15.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 10 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly V1 A Hamelin · L Ho | A Hamelin | L Ho | 8 | 7.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | DOCTORS DELIGHT Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 2 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | SMART THINKER Closed strongly B/XB H W Lai · R Gibson | H W Lai | R Gibson | 11 | 287.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | EVERYONE'S ELITE B J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 6 | 4.1 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | SANGRIA B M L Yeung · D E Ferraris | M L Yeung | D E Ferraris | 7 | 28.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 7 | FUN TIMES Closed strongly B C Schofield · A T Millard | C Schofield | A T Millard | 12 | 37.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | HAR HAR HEART V Borges · T P Yung | V Borges | T P Yung | 9 | 35.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | EVERYONE'S ELITE | 34.7% | 2.88 | 9 |
| 2 | 2 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 15.0% | 6.66 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | FOCUS | 9.6% | 10.46 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | DOCTORS DELIGHT | 7.6% | 13.08 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | FUN TIMES | 7.6% | 13.10 | 11 |
| 6 | 12 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 6.6% | 15.06 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | PARTY TOGETHER | 6.4% | 15.66 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | SANGRIA | 4.7% | 21.13 | 10 |
| 9 | 4 | HAR HAR HEART | 2.7% | 36.50 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 2.5% | 40.51 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | AMAZING LUCK | 2.0% | 50.86 | 3 |
| 12 | 8 | SMART THINKER | 0.5% | 191.97 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 34.5
PLACE
2 13.5
3 47.5
5 18
QUINELLA
2,5 93.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 115.5
2,5 38
3,5 117.5
TIERCE
2,5,3 1,923
TRIO
2,3,5 448
FIRST 4
2,3,5,12 1,457
QUARTET
2,5,3,12 17,927
2ND DOUBLE
2/2 91
2/5 28
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 18.5